Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
The Union Pacific Corporation (Union Pacific) is a publicly traded railroad holding company. It was incorporated in Utah in 1969 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska. It is the parent company of the current, Delaware-registered, form of the Union Pacific Railroad.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.23% per annum.
- UNP price at the close of April 30, 2024 was $237.16 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.07 (2.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.41% per annum.
- UNP price at the close of April 30, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 5, 2021
End date: November 20, 2023
a = 5.4197
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0702
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0702) – 1
= 32.41%
March 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y465)
= Exp(a + b × X465 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 674 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4197 + -0.0001 × 674 + 2 × 0.0702)
= Exp(5.5184)
= $249.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y465)
= Exp(a + b × X465 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 674 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4197 + -0.0001 × 674 – 2 × 0.0702)
= Exp(5.2377)
= $188.23
November 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4197 + -0.0001 × 1,664 + 2 × 0.0702)
= Exp(5.4571)
= $234.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,148)
= Exp(a + b × X1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4197 + -0.0001 × 1,664 – 2 × 0.0702)
= Exp(5.1764)
= $177.05
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.23% per annum.
- UNP price at the close of April 30, 2024 was $237.16 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.07 (2.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: April 10, 2024
a = 4.1727
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0416
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 31.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0416) – 1
= 18.10%
March 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y971)
= Exp(a + b × X971 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1727 + 0.0007 × 1,408 + 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(5.3094)
= $202.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y971)
= Exp(a + b × X971 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,408 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1727 + 0.0007 × 1,408 – 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(5.1431)
= $171.24
April 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1727 + 0.0007 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(5.6073)
= $272.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1727 + 0.0007 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0416)
= Exp(5.4409)
= $230.65
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.41% per annum.
- UNP price at the close of April 30, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.