Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC)
The Norfolk Southern Railway is a Class I freight railroad in the United States, and is the current name of the former Southern Railway. With headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia, the company operates 19,420 route miles (31,250 km) in 22 eastern states, the District of Columbia, and has rights in Canada over the Albany to Montreal route of the Canadian Pacific Railway, and previously on CN from Buffalo to St. Thomas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.18% per annum.
- NSC price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $232.32 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.61 (4.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 82.84% per annum.
- NSC price at the close of May 7, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $25.53 (9.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NSC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 12, 2021
End date: November 30, 2023
a = 5.7554
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0662
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0662) – 1
= 30.29%
February 12, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y446)
= Exp(a + b × X446 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 646 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7554 + -0.0003 × 646 + 2 × 0.0662)
= Exp(5.7172)
= $304.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y446)
= Exp(a + b × X446 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 646 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7554 + -0.0003 × 646 – 2 × 0.0662)
= Exp(5.4526)
= $233.37
November 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,150)
= Exp(a + b × X1,150 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7554 + -0.0003 × 1,667 + 2 × 0.0662)
= Exp(5.4478)
= $232.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,150)
= Exp(a + b × X1,150 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7554 + -0.0003 × 1,667 – 2 × 0.0662)
= Exp(5.1832)
= $178.26
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.18% per annum.
- NSC price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $232.32 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.61 (4.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 31, 2023
End date: April 3, 2024
a = 2.6144
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0404
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 82.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0404) – 1
= 17.54%
August 31, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6144 + 0.0017 × 1,576 + 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(5.3007)
= $200.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,087)
= Exp(a + b × X1,087 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6144 + 0.0017 × 1,576 – 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(5.1391)
= $170.56
April 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6144 + 0.0017 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(5.6578)
= $286.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6144 + 0.0017 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(5.4962)
= $243.76
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 82.84% per annum.
- NSC price at the close of May 7, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $25.53 (9.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.