ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS)
ExlService Holdings, Inc. provides operations management and analysis services in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.75% per annum.
- EXLS price at the close of August 21, 2025 was $43.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 140.97% per annum.
- EXLS price at the close of August 21, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EXLS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: August 21, 2025
a = 5.1030
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0343
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0343) – 1
= 14.72%
January 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,107)
= Exp(a + b × X1,107 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,611 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1030 + -0.0007 × 1,611 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(3.9751)
= $53.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,107)
= Exp(a + b × X1,107 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,611 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1030 + -0.0007 × 1,611 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(3.8378)
= $46.42
August 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1030 + -0.0007 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(3.8176)
= $45.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1030 + -0.0007 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(3.6803)
= $39.66
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.75% per annum.
- EXLS price at the close of August 21, 2025 was $43.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 7, 2025
End date: August 21, 2025
a = -0.6207
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0069
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 140.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0069) – 1
= 2.79%
August 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6207 + 0.0024 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.0069)
= Exp(3.7520)
= $42.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6207 + 0.0024 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.0069)
= Exp(3.7245)
= $41.45
August 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6207 + 0.0024 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0069)
= Exp(3.7857)
= $44.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6207 + 0.0024 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0069)
= Exp(3.7582)
= $42.87
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 140.97% per annum.
- EXLS price at the close of August 21, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.