Stock Price Trends

ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS)

ExlService Holdings, Inc. is a leading provider of operations management and analytical services, specializing in delivering data-driven solutions that enhance operational efficiency and drive business performance for clients across various industries. Headquartered in New York, the company leverages advanced technologies and deep industry expertise to support a diverse global clientele, including Fortune 500 companies. With a robust focus on digital transformation and analytics, ExlService is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the evolving business landscape.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.15% per annum.
  • EXLS price at the close of October 24, 2025 was $41.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.75% per annum.
  • EXLS price at the close of October 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EXLS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 16, 2025
End date: October 24, 2025

a = 4.8501

b = -0.0006

s = 0.0334

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.15%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0334) – 1
= 14.28%

January 16, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,061)
= Exp(a + b × X1,061 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,543 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8501 + -0.0006 × 1,543 + 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(3.9658)
= $52.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,061)
= Exp(a + b × X1,061 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,543 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8501 + -0.0006 × 1,543 – 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(3.8323)
= $46.17

October 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8501 + -0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(3.7926)
= $44.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8501 + -0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0334)
= Exp(3.6591)
= $38.83

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.15% per annum.
  • EXLS price at the close of October 24, 2025 was $41.21 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 22, 2025
End date: October 24, 2025

a = 8.5020

b = -0.0026

s = 0.0169

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -61.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0169) – 1
= 6.99%

September 22, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5020 + -0.0026 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(3.8172)
= $45.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5020 + -0.0026 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(3.7497)
= $42.51

October 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5020 + -0.0026 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(3.7330)
= $41.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.5020 + -0.0026 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0169)
= Exp(3.6654)
= $39.07

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.75% per annum.
  • EXLS price at the close of October 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.