Stock Price Trends

Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM)

at verra mobility, our purpose is to build solutions that help the world move safely and easily. we do this by building safe cities, smart roadways and the connected systems that tie them together. the passion of our people fuels our ability to move the world. working here, you will have opportunities to take real ownership over your work to make a meaningful impact, moving both the world and your career forward. are you ready to go places? as you’re learning more about us, we expect you’ll find we rebranded as verra mobility in 2018. three great companies, each grown through the hard work and dedication of the industry’s best people, joined forces to increase our ability to provide vital solutions to the global smart mobility marketplace. it’s an exciting time for all of us here as we come together to both move the world forward and create a great place to work. joining us now means you can have a direct, hands-on experience in shaping the future of verra mobility.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.37% per annum.
  • VRRM price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $22.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 53.39% per annum.
  • VRRM price at the close of March 1, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.12 (0.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VRRM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 3, 2022
End date: March 1, 2024

a = 1.3412

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0543

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 43.37%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0543) – 1
= 24.26%

November 3, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y927)
= Exp(a + b × X927 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,340 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3412 + 0.0010 × 1,340 + 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(2.7724)
= $16.00

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y927)
= Exp(a + b × X927 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,340 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3412 + 0.0010 × 1,340 – 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(2.5552)
= $12.87

March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3412 + 0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(3.2501)
= $25.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3412 + 0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(3.0329)
= $20.76

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.37% per annum.
  • VRRM price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $22.88 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 22, 2024
End date: March 1, 2024

a = 6.8920

b = -0.0021

s = 0.0240

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.39%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0240) – 1
= 10.07%

January 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8920 + -0.0021 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0240)
= Exp(3.2065)
= $24.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8920 + -0.0021 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0240)
= Exp(3.1106)
= $22.43

March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8920 + -0.0021 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0240)
= Exp(3.1249)
= $22.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8920 + -0.0021 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0240)
= Exp(3.0290)
= $20.68

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 53.39% per annum.
  • VRRM price at the close of March 1, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.12 (0.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.