Stock Price Trends

FTI Consulting Inc (FCN)

FTI Consulting, Inc. provides business advisory services to manage change, mitigate risk, and resolve disputes on a global basis. The company is headquartered in Washington, District of Columbia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.46% per annum.
  • FCN price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $164.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.27% per annum.
  • FCN price at the close of July 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FCN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 12, 2024
End date: July 2, 2025

a = 7.2228

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0438

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.46%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0438) – 1
= 19.14%

July 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,467 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2228 + -0.0012 × 1,467 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(5.5502)
= $257.30

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,011)
= Exp(a + b × X1,011 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,467 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2228 + -0.0012 × 1,467 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(5.3751)
= $215.97

July 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2228 + -0.0012 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(5.1243)
= $168.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2228 + -0.0012 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(4.9492)
= $141.06

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.46% per annum.
  • FCN price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $164.89 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 20, 2025
End date: July 3, 2025

a = 5.2573

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0178

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.27%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0178) – 1
= 7.37%

February 20, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,690 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2573 + -0.0001 × 1,690 + 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(5.1389)
= $170.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,163)
= Exp(a + b × X1,163 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,690 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2573 + -0.0001 × 1,690 – 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(5.0679)
= $158.83

July 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2573 + -0.0001 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(5.1268)
= $168.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2573 + -0.0001 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(5.0557)
= $156.92

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.27% per annum.
  • FCN price at the close of July 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.