FTI Consulting Inc (FCN)
FTI Consulting, Inc. provides business advisory services to manage change, mitigate risk, and resolve disputes on a global basis. The company is headquartered in Washington, District of Columbia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.59% per annum.
- FCN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $225.42 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $18.37 (7.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.94% per annum.
- FCN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FCN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 9, 2020
End date: July 28, 2022
a = 4.4432
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0626
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 26.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0626) – 1
= 28.47%
June 9, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y218)
= Exp(a + b × X218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4432 + 0.0006 × 316 + 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(4.7726)
= $118.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y218)
= Exp(a + b × X218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4432 + 0.0006 × 316 – 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(4.5221)
= $92.03
July 28, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y756)
= Exp(a + b × X756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,095 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4432 + 0.0006 × 1,095 + 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(5.2759)
= $195.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y756)
= Exp(a + b × X756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,095 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4432 + 0.0006 × 1,095 – 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(5.0254)
= $152.22
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.59% per annum.
- FCN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $225.42 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $18.37 (7.54%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2021
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.6525
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0544
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0544) – 1
= 24.32%
March 10, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y407)
= Exp(a + b × X407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 590 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6525 + 0.0004 × 590 + 2 × 0.0544)
= Exp(5.0004)
= $148.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y407)
= Exp(a + b × X407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 590 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6525 + 0.0004 × 590 – 2 × 0.0544)
= Exp(4.7828)
= $119.43
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6525 + 0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0544)
= Exp(5.5005)
= $244.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6525 + 0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0544)
= Exp(5.2829)
= $196.93
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.94% per annum.
- FCN price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.