Exponent Inc (EXPO)
Exponent, Inc., is a global science and engineering consulting company. The company is headquartered in Menlo Park, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.17% per annum.
- EXPO price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $95.18 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.74 (0.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 96.32% per annum.
- EXPO price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EXPO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 30, 2021
End date: April 25, 2024
a = 4.9237
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0801
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0801) – 1
= 37.79%
July 30, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y554)
= Exp(a + b × X554 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9237 + -0.0003 × 802 + 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(4.8483)
= $127.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y554)
= Exp(a + b × X554 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9237 + -0.0003 × 802 – 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(4.5278)
= $92.55
April 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9237 + -0.0003 × 1,802 + 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(4.5545)
= $95.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9237 + -0.0003 × 1,802 – 2 × 0.0801)
= Exp(4.2339)
= $68.99
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.17% per annum.
- EXPO price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $95.18 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.74 (0.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2024
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 1.1318
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0481
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 96.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0481) – 1
= 21.22%
February 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,719 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1318 + 0.0018 × 1,719 + 2 × 0.0481)
= Exp(4.4050)
= $81.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,719 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1318 + 0.0018 × 1,719 – 2 × 0.0481)
= Exp(4.2126)
= $67.53
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1318 + 0.0018 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0481)
= Exp(4.5991)
= $99.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1318 + 0.0018 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0481)
= Exp(4.4066)
= $81.99
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 96.32% per annum.
- EXPO price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.