Verisk Analytics Inc (VRSK)
Verisk Analytics, Inc. is an American data analytics and risk assessment firm based in Jersey City, New Jersey, with customers in insurance, natural resources, financial services, government, and risk management sectors. The company uses proprietary data sets and industry expertise to provide predictive analytics and decision support consultations in areas including fraud prevention, actuarial science, insurance coverage, fire protection, catastrophe and weather risk, and data management.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.62% per annum.
- VRSK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $275.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.27% per annum.
- VRSK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $13.06 (4.97%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VRSK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 15, 2022
End date: February 20, 2024
a = 4.1286
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0490
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 36.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0490) – 1
= 21.67%
September 15, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y791)
= Exp(a + b × X791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1286 + 0.0009 × 1,147 + 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(5.2072)
= $182.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y791)
= Exp(a + b × X791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1286 + 0.0009 × 1,147 – 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(5.0111)
= $150.07
February 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,670 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1286 + 0.0009 × 1,670 + 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(5.6543)
= $285.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,670 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1286 + 0.0009 × 1,670 – 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(5.4582)
= $234.67
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.62% per annum.
- VRSK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $275.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 9, 2023
End date: June 3, 2024
a = 5.1507
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0348
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0348) – 1
= 14.94%
May 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y953)
= Exp(a + b × X953 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,383 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1507 + 0.0002 × 1,383 + 2 × 0.0348)
= Exp(5.4864)
= $241.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y953)
= Exp(a + b × X953 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,383 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1507 + 0.0002 × 1,383 – 2 × 0.0348)
= Exp(5.3471)
= $209.99
June 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1507 + 0.0002 × 1,774 + 2 × 0.0348)
= Exp(5.5616)
= $260.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1507 + 0.0002 × 1,774 – 2 × 0.0348)
= Exp(5.4223)
= $226.39
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.27% per annum.
- VRSK price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $13.06 (4.97%).