Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX)
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical service industry in the United States. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 87.13% per annum.
- FIX price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $316.23 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 262.52% per annum.
- FIX price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FIX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2022
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 2.5204
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0928
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 87.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0928) – 1
= 44.94%
April 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y738)
= Exp(a + b × X738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,068 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5204 + 0.0017 × 1,068 + 2 × 0.0928)
= Exp(4.5395)
= $93.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y738)
= Exp(a + b × X738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,068 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5204 + 0.0017 × 1,068 – 2 × 0.0928)
= Exp(4.1683)
= $64.61
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5204 + 0.0017 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0928)
= Exp(5.8373)
= $342.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5204 + 0.0017 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0928)
= Exp(5.4662)
= $236.56
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 87.13% per annum.
- FIX price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $316.23 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 2, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = -0.5831
b = 0.0035
s = 0.0738
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0035) – 1
= 262.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0738) – 1
= 34.34%
October 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,596 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5831 + 0.0035 × 1,596 + 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(5.1960)
= $180.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,100)
= Exp(a + b × X1,100 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,596 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5831 + 0.0035 × 1,596 – 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(4.9008)
= $134.40
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5831 + 0.0035 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(6.0005)
= $403.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5831 + 0.0035 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0738)
= Exp(5.7053)
= $300.47
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 262.52% per annum.
- FIX price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.