Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA)
Granite Construction Incorporated is an infrastructure contractor and producer of building materials in the United States. The company is headquartered in Watsonville, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 53.47% per annum.
- GVA price at the close of September 17, 2025 was $107.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 127.40% per annum.
- GVA price at the close of September 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GVA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: September 17, 2025
a = 2.5199
b = 0.0012
s = 0.1082
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 53.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1082) – 1
= 54.13%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y436)
= Exp(a + b × X436 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 633 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5199 + 0.0012 × 633 + 2 × 0.1082)
= Exp(3.4791)
= $32.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y436)
= Exp(a + b × X436 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 633 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5199 + 0.0012 × 633 – 2 × 0.1082)
= Exp(3.0465)
= $21.04
September 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5199 + 0.0012 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1082)
= Exp(4.8780)
= $131.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5199 + 0.0012 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1082)
= Exp(4.4454)
= $85.23
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 53.47% per annum.
- GVA price at the close of September 17, 2025 was $107.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2025
End date: September 17, 2025
a = 0.6026
b = 0.0023
s = 0.0326
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 127.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0326) – 1
= 13.93%
March 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,121)
= Exp(a + b × X1,121 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6026 + 0.0023 × 1,631 + 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(4.3390)
= $76.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,121)
= Exp(a + b × X1,121 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,631 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6026 + 0.0023 × 1,631 – 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(4.2085)
= $67.26
September 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6026 + 0.0023 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(4.7756)
= $118.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6026 + 0.0023 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(4.6452)
= $104.08
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 127.40% per annum.
- GVA price at the close of September 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.