Jacobs Solutions Inc. (J)
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. (NYSE: J) is an American international technical professional services firm. The company provides technical, professional and construction services, as well as scientific and specialty consulting for a broad range of clients globally, including companies, organizations, and government agencies.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.81% per annum.
- J price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $145.98 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $26.92 (22.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.53% per annum.
- J price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of J price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2021
End date: July 20, 2023
a = 5.0286
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0518
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0518) – 1
= 23.00%
March 9, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y406)
= Exp(a + b × X406 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 589 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0286 + -0.0002 × 589 + 2 × 0.0518)
= Exp(5.0183)
= $151.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y406)
= Exp(a + b × X406 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 589 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0286 + -0.0002 × 589 – 2 × 0.0518)
= Exp(4.8112)
= $122.88
July 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,452 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0286 + -0.0002 × 1,452 + 2 × 0.0518)
= Exp(4.8515)
= $127.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,452 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0286 + -0.0002 × 1,452 – 2 × 0.0518)
= Exp(4.6445)
= $104.01
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.81% per annum.
- J price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $145.98 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $26.92 (22.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.2587
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0480
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0480) – 1
= 21.17%
September 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y788)
= Exp(a + b × X788 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,142 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2587 + 0.0004 × 1,142 + 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(4.8065)
= $122.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y788)
= Exp(a + b × X788 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,142 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2587 + 0.0004 × 1,142 – 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(4.6145)
= $100.94
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2587 + 0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(5.0763)
= $160.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2587 + 0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0480)
= Exp(4.8843)
= $132.20
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.53% per annum.
- J price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.