Omnicell Inc (OMCL)
Omnicell, Inc., provides medication management automation solutions and adherence tools for health care systems and pharmacies in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Mountain View, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.34% per annum.
- OMCL price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $30.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.75% per annum.
- OMCL price at the close of May 17, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.79 (2.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OMCL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 5, 2021
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 6.8130
b = -0.0019
s = 0.1845
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -50.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1845) – 1
= 109.21%
August 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y558)
= Exp(a + b × X558 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8130 + -0.0019 × 808 + 2 × 0.1845)
= Exp(5.6324)
= $279.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y558)
= Exp(a + b × X558 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8130 + -0.0019 × 808 – 2 × 0.1845)
= Exp(4.8943)
= $133.52
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8130 + -0.0019 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1845)
= Exp(3.6839)
= $39.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8130 + -0.0019 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1845)
= Exp(2.9457)
= $19.02
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 50.34% per annum.
- OMCL price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $30.44 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 11, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 8.9566
b = -0.0032
s = 0.1227
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0032) – 1
= -68.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1227) – 1
= 63.36%
May 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,002)
= Exp(a + b × X1,002 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,452 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9566 + -0.0032 × 1,452 + 2 × 0.1227)
= Exp(4.5750)
= $97.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,002)
= Exp(a + b × X1,002 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,452 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9566 + -0.0032 × 1,452 – 2 × 0.1227)
= Exp(4.0842)
= $59.40
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9566 + -0.0032 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1227)
= Exp(3.3896)
= $29.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9566 + -0.0032 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1227)
= Exp(2.8988)
= $18.15
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 68.75% per annum.
- OMCL price at the close of May 17, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.79 (2.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.