HealthStream Inc (HSTM)
HealthStream, Inc. provides provider and staff solutions for healthcare organizations in the United States. The company is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.42% per annum.
- HSTM price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $27.39 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.90 (15.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.25% per annum.
- HSTM price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HSTM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 22, 2022
End date: April 26, 2023
a = 2.2038
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0472
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 31.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0472) – 1
= 20.77%
February 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y696)
= Exp(a + b × X696 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,009 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2038 + 0.0007 × 1,009 + 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(3.0534)
= $21.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y696)
= Exp(a + b × X696 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,009 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2038 + 0.0007 × 1,009 – 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(2.8647)
= $17.54
April 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y991)
= Exp(a + b × X991 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,437 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2038 + 0.0007 × 1,437 + 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(3.3738)
= $29.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y991)
= Exp(a + b × X991 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,437 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2038 + 0.0007 × 1,437 – 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(3.1850)
= $24.17
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.42% per annum.
- HSTM price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $27.39 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.90 (15.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 24, 2022
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 2.9029
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0686
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0686) – 1
= 31.56%
June 24, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,131 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9029 + 0.0002 × 1,131 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(3.2569)
= $25.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,131 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9029 + 0.0002 × 1,131 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(2.9826)
= $19.74
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9029 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(3.3899)
= $29.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9029 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(3.1156)
= $22.55
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.25% per annum.
- HSTM price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.