Stock Price Trends

SJW Group Common Stock (SJW)

SJW Group, provides public water services in the United States. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.88% per annum.
  • SJW price at the close of May 5, 2025 was $54.86 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.40 (18.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.48% per annum.
  • SJW price at the close of May 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SJW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 18, 2022
End date: July 10, 2024

a = 4.9781

b = -0.0007

s = 0.0458

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.88%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0458) – 1
= 20.09%

November 18, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y638)
= Exp(a + b × X638 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 921 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9781 + -0.0007 × 921 + 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(4.4466)
= $85.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y638)
= Exp(a + b × X638 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 921 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9781 + -0.0007 × 921 – 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(4.2636)
= $71.06

July 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,047)
= Exp(a + b × X1,047 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,521 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9781 + -0.0007 × 1,521 + 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(4.0408)
= $56.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,047)
= Exp(a + b × X1,047 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,521 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9781 + -0.0007 × 1,521 – 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(3.8578)
= $47.36

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.88% per annum.
  • SJW price at the close of May 5, 2025 was $54.86 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.40 (18.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 17, 2023
End date: May 5, 2025

a = 4.4361

b = -0.0003

s = 0.0579

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.48%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0579) – 1
= 26.05%

August 17, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y823)
= Exp(a + b × X823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4361 + -0.0003 × 1,193 + 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(4.2263)
= $68.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y823)
= Exp(a + b × X823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4361 + -0.0003 × 1,193 – 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(3.9948)
= $54.32

May 5, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4361 + -0.0003 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(4.0552)
= $57.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4361 + -0.0003 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0579)
= Exp(3.8237)
= $45.77

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.48% per annum.
  • SJW price at the close of May 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.