California Water Service Group (CWT)
California Water Service Group provides public water and related services in California, Washington, New Mexico and Hawaii. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.01% per annum.
- CWT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $52.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.77% per annum.
- CWT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CWT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 16, 2021
End date: July 11, 2024
a = 4.2764
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0677
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0677) – 1
= 31.11%
July 16, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y496)
= Exp(a + b × X496 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 718 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2764 + -0.0002 × 718 + 2 × 0.0677)
= Exp(4.2475)
= $69.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y496)
= Exp(a + b × X496 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 718 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2764 + -0.0002 × 718 – 2 × 0.0677)
= Exp(3.9766)
= $53.34
July 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2764 + -0.0002 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.0677)
= Exp(3.9979)
= $54.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2764 + -0.0002 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.0677)
= Exp(3.7270)
= $41.55
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.01% per annum.
- CWT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $52.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 24, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 2.6312
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0395
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0395) – 1
= 17.12%
January 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,130)
= Exp(a + b × X1,130 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,640 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6312 + 0.0007 × 1,640 + 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(3.8812)
= $48.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,130)
= Exp(a + b × X1,130 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,640 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6312 + 0.0007 × 1,640 – 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(3.7231)
= $41.39
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6312 + 0.0007 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(4.0125)
= $55.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6312 + 0.0007 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(3.8545)
= $47.20
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.77% per annum.
- CWT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.