Stock Price Trends

American States Water Company (AWR)

American States Water Company (AWR) is a leading provider of water and electricity services in the United States, serving a diverse customer base that includes residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Based in San Dimas, California, the company operates regulated water and electric utility segments, with a strong focus on sustainability and operational efficiency. AWR is recognized for its commitment to quality service, infrastructure development, and responsible resource management, positioning it as a vital player in the utilities sector amidst increasing demand for reliable essential services.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.17% per annum.
  • AWR price at the close of October 10, 2025 was $74.46 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.55 (0.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 32.63% per annum.
  • AWR price at the close of October 10, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.39 (3.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AWR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 14, 2025
End date: October 8, 2025

a = 5.3367

b = -0.0006

s = 0.0147

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.17%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0147) – 1
= 6.07%

April 14, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3367 + -0.0006 × 1,645 + 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(4.4071)
= $82.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3367 + -0.0006 × 1,645 – 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(4.3482)
= $77.34

October 8, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3367 + -0.0006 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(4.3039)
= $73.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3367 + -0.0006 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(4.2450)
= $69.76

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.17% per annum.
  • AWR price at the close of October 10, 2025 was $74.46 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.55 (0.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 7, 2025
End date: October 8, 2025

a = 6.2337

b = -0.0011

s = 0.0087

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.63%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0087) – 1
= 3.56%

August 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2337 + -0.0011 × 1,760 + 2 × 0.0087)
= Exp(4.3469)
= $77.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2337 + -0.0011 × 1,760 – 2 × 0.0087)
= Exp(4.3119)
= $74.58

October 8, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2337 + -0.0011 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0087)
= Exp(4.2798)
= $72.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2337 + -0.0011 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0087)
= Exp(4.2448)
= $69.74

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 32.63% per annum.
  • AWR price at the close of October 10, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.39 (3.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.