American States Water Company (AWR)
American States Water Company provides water and electricity services to residential, commercial, industrial and other customers in the United States. The company is headquartered in San Dimas, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.96% per annum.
- AWR price at the close of May 8, 2025 was $80.32 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.45% per annum.
- AWR price at the close of May 8, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.68 (5.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AWR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 28, 2021
End date: July 23, 2024
a = 4.5294
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0710
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0710) – 1
= 32.83%
July 28, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 443 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5294 + -0.0001 × 443 + 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(4.6096)
= $100.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 443 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5294 + -0.0001 × 443 – 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(4.3257)
= $75.62
July 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,056)
= Exp(a + b × X1,056 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,534 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5294 + -0.0001 × 1,534 + 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(4.4576)
= $86.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,056)
= Exp(a + b × X1,056 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,534 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5294 + -0.0001 × 1,534 – 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(4.1737)
= $64.95
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.96% per annum.
- AWR price at the close of May 8, 2025 was $80.32 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 17, 2024
End date: December 17, 2024
a = 3.3594
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0444
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 26.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0444) – 1
= 19.42%
January 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y927)
= Exp(a + b × X927 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,346 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3594 + 0.0006 × 1,346 + 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(4.3134)
= $74.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y927)
= Exp(a + b × X927 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,346 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3594 + 0.0006 × 1,346 – 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(4.1359)
= $62.55
December 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3594 + 0.0006 × 1,681 + 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(4.5288)
= $92.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3594 + 0.0006 × 1,681 – 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(4.3513)
= $77.58
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.45% per annum.
- AWR price at the close of May 8, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.68 (5.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.