Stock Price Trends

United Natural Foods Inc (UNFI)

United Natural Foods, Inc. distributes natural, organic, specialty, agricultural and conventional, edible and non-food products in the United States and Canada. The company is headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 302.58% per annum.
  • UNFI price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $26.24 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.95 (23.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.74% per annum.
  • UNFI price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNFI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 22, 2024
End date: March 3, 2025

a = -3.2419

b = 0.0038

s = 0.0950

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0038) – 1
= 302.58%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0950) – 1
= 46.21%

March 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y980)
= Exp(a + b × X980 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,422 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2419 + 0.0038 × 1,422 + 2 × 0.0950)
= Exp(2.3740)
= $10.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y980)
= Exp(a + b × X980 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,422 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2419 + 0.0038 × 1,422 – 2 × 0.0950)
= Exp(1.9941)
= $7.35

March 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2419 + 0.0038 × 1,768 + 2 × 0.0950)
= Exp(3.6942)
= $40.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.2419 + 0.0038 × 1,768 – 2 × 0.0950)
= Exp(3.3144)
= $27.50

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 302.58% per annum.
  • UNFI price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $26.24 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.95 (23.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 28, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 8.8418

b = -0.0031

s = 0.0592

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.74%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0592) – 1
= 26.72%

January 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8418 + -0.0031 × 1,734 + 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(3.5851)
= $36.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,192)
= Exp(a + b × X1,192 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,734 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8418 + -0.0031 × 1,734 – 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(3.3483)
= $28.45

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8418 + -0.0031 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(3.3030)
= $27.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.8418 + -0.0031 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0592)
= Exp(3.0662)
= $21.46

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.74% per annum.
  • UNFI price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.