United Natural Foods Inc (UNFI)
United Natural Foods, Inc. distributes natural, organic, specialty, agricultural and conventional, edible and non-food products in the United States and Canada. The company is headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.37% per annum.
- UNFI price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $15.53 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.43 (10.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 416.75% per annum.
- UNFI price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNFI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 11, 2022
End date: July 15, 2024
a = 6.0214
b = -0.0020
s = 0.1655
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -52.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1655) – 1
= 93.89%
April 11, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y682)
= Exp(a + b × X682 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 987 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0214 + -0.0020 × 987 + 2 × 0.1655)
= Exp(4.3468)
= $77.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y682)
= Exp(a + b × X682 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 987 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0214 + -0.0020 × 987 – 2 × 0.1655)
= Exp(3.6847)
= $39.83
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0214 + -0.0020 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.1655)
= Exp(2.6683)
= $14.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0214 + -0.0020 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.1655)
= Exp(2.0062)
= $7.43
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.37% per annum.
- UNFI price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $15.53 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.43 (10.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 10, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = -5.5096
b = 0.0045
s = 0.0838
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0045) – 1
= 416.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0838) – 1
= 39.81%
April 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.5096 + 0.0045 × 1,717 + 2 × 0.0838)
= Exp(2.3840)
= $10.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.5096 + 0.0045 × 1,717 – 2 × 0.0838)
= Exp(2.0489)
= $7.76
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.5096 + 0.0045 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0838)
= Exp(2.8654)
= $17.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-5.5096 + 0.0045 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0838)
= Exp(2.5303)
= $12.56
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 416.75% per annum.
- UNFI price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.