Stock Price Trends

United Natural Foods Inc (UNFI)

United Natural Foods, Inc. distributes natural, organic, specialty, agricultural and conventional, edible and non-food products in the United States and Canada. The company is headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 263.59% per annum.
  • UNFI price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $23.26 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $16.03 (40.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.94% per annum.
  • UNFI price at the close of July 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNFI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 6, 2024
End date: March 6, 2025

a = -2.5450

b = 0.0035

s = 0.1139

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0035) – 1
= 263.59%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1139) – 1
= 57.71%

March 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y922)
= Exp(a + b × X922 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,338 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.5450 + 0.0035 × 1,338 + 2 × 0.1139)
= Exp(2.4148)
= $11.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y922)
= Exp(a + b × X922 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,338 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.5450 + 0.0035 × 1,338 – 2 × 0.1139)
= Exp(1.9593)
= $7.09

March 6, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,703 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.5450 + 0.0035 × 1,703 + 2 × 0.1139)
= Exp(3.7057)
= $40.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,703 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.5450 + 0.0035 × 1,703 – 2 × 0.1139)
= Exp(3.2501)
= $25.79

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 263.59% per annum.
  • UNFI price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $23.26 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $16.03 (40.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 10, 2024
End date: July 3, 2025

a = 4.7839

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0958

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -26.94%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0958) – 1
= 46.70%

December 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,115)
= Exp(a + b × X1,115 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,617 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7839 + -0.0009 × 1,617 + 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(3.5850)
= $36.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,115)
= Exp(a + b × X1,115 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,617 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7839 + -0.0009 × 1,617 – 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(3.2018)
= $24.58

July 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7839 + -0.0009 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(3.4088)
= $30.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7839 + -0.0009 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0958)
= Exp(3.0255)
= $20.61

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.94% per annum.
  • UNFI price at the close of July 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.