Stock Price Trends

Sprouts Farmers Market LLC (SFM)

Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. is a specialty grocery retailer focused on providing fresh, natural, and organic food products across the United States. With its headquarters in Phoenix, Arizona, the company operates a growing network of stores that emphasize health-conscious living and sustainability. Sprouts is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing consumer demand for organic and clean-label products, showcasing its commitment to high-quality offerings while maintaining competitive pricing. The company's unique curb appeal and farmer's market-inspired shopping experience attract a diverse customer base, making it a noteworthy player in the rapidly evolving grocery sector.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 84.18% per annum.
  • SFM price at the close of December 12, 2025 was $79.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 47.41% per annum.
  • SFM price at the close of December 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SFM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 20, 2025
End date: December 12, 2025

a = 13.5621

b = -0.0051

s = 0.0751

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0051) – 1
= -84.18%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0751) – 1
= 35.06%

June 20, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,133)
= Exp(a + b × X1,133 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,649 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.5621 + -0.0051 × 1,649 + 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(5.3829)
= $217.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,133)
= Exp(a + b × X1,133 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,649 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.5621 + -0.0051 × 1,649 – 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(5.0824)
= $161.15

December 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.5621 + -0.0051 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(4.4990)
= $89.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.5621 + -0.0051 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0751)
= Exp(4.1984)
= $66.58

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 84.18% per annum.
  • SFM price at the close of December 12, 2025 was $79.54 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 30, 2025
End date: December 12, 2025

a = 2.4853

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0270

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 47.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0270) – 1
= 11.39%

October 30, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4853 + 0.0011 × 1,781 + 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(4.4327)
= $84.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4853 + 0.0011 × 1,781 – 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(4.3248)
= $75.55

December 12, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4853 + 0.0011 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(4.4784)
= $88.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4853 + 0.0011 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(4.3705)
= $79.08

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 47.41% per annum.
  • SFM price at the close of December 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.