# Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. The company is headquartered in Emeryville, California.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.42% per annum.
- GO price at the close of May 24, 2024 was $22.62 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.16 (29.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.61% per annum.
- GO price at the close of May 24, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.64 (2.74%).

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of GO price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: May 11, 2022

End date: April 21, 2023

a = 5.2589

b = -0.0014

s = 0.0773

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1

= -40.42%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0773) – 1

= 36.23%

#### May 11, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{729})

= Exp(a + b × X_{729} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,056 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.2589 + -0.0014 × 1,056 + 2 × 0.0773)

= Exp(3.9153)

= $50.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{729})

= Exp(a + b × X_{729} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,056 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.2589 + -0.0014 × 1,056 – 2 × 0.0773)

= Exp(3.6061)

= $36.82

#### April 21, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{966})

= Exp(a + b × X_{966} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,401 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.2589 + -0.0014 × 1,401 + 2 × 0.0773)

= Exp(3.4258)

= $30.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{966})

= Exp(a + b × X_{966} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,401 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.2589 + -0.0014 × 1,401 – 2 × 0.0773)

= Exp(3.1166)

= $22.57

#### Description

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.42% per annum.
- GO price at the close of May 24, 2024 was $22.62 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.16 (29.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: September 15, 2022

End date: May 7, 2024

a = 3.8279

b = -0.0003

s = 0.0642

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1

= -10.61%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0642) – 1

= 29.29%

#### September 15, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{816})

= Exp(a + b × X_{816} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,183 + 2 × s)

= Exp(3.8279 + -0.0003 × 1,183 + 2 × 0.0642)

= Exp(3.5930)

= $36.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{816})

= Exp(a + b × X_{816} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,183 – 2 × s)

= Exp(3.8279 + -0.0003 × 1,183 – 2 × 0.0642)

= Exp(3.3361)

= $28.11

#### May 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,228})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,228} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,783 + 2 × s)

= Exp(3.8279 + -0.0003 × 1,783 + 2 × 0.0642)

= Exp(3.4087)

= $30.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,228})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,228} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,783 – 2 × s)

= Exp(3.8279 + -0.0003 × 1,783 – 2 × 0.0642)

= Exp(3.1518)

= $23.38

#### Description

- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.61% per annum.
- GO price at the close of May 24, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.64 (2.74%).