Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. The company is headquartered in Emeryville, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.46% per annum.
- GO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $19.78 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 63.31% per annum.
- GO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 5, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 5.1087
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0629
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0629) – 1
= 28.63%
July 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y991)
= Exp(a + b × X991 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,440 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1087 + -0.0011 × 1,440 + 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(3.6276)
= $37.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y991)
= Exp(a + b × X991 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,440 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1087 + -0.0011 × 1,440 – 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(3.3758)
= $29.25
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1087 + -0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(3.1968)
= $24.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1087 + -0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0629)
= Exp(2.9451)
= $19.01
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.46% per annum.
- GO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $19.78 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 7.9904
b = -0.0027
s = 0.0607
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -63.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0607) – 1
= 27.50%
March 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,692 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9904 + -0.0027 × 1,692 + 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(3.4640)
= $31.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,692 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9904 + -0.0027 × 1,692 – 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(3.2210)
= $25.05
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9904 + -0.0027 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(3.0959)
= $22.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9904 + -0.0027 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0607)
= Exp(2.8529)
= $17.34
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 63.31% per annum.
- GO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.