Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. is a prominent discount grocery retailer based in Emeryville, California, specializing in offering a unique assortment of fresh produce, groceries, and household items at competitive prices. The company operates over 400 stores across the United States, capitalizing on a value-oriented business model that attracts budget-conscious consumers. With a commitment to providing quality products at reduced prices, Grocery Outlet has established a strong brand presence and demonstrated resilience in varying market conditions, positioning itself well for continued growth in the ever-evolving retail landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.59% per annum.
- GO price at the close of December 5, 2025 was $11.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 87.32% per annum.
- GO price at the close of December 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 23, 2022
End date: August 5, 2025
a = 4.2578
b = -0.0010
s = 0.1178
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1178) – 1
= 60.20%
May 23, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y367)
= Exp(a + b × X367 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 532 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2578 + -0.0010 × 532 + 2 × 0.1178)
= Exp(3.9820)
= $53.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y367)
= Exp(a + b × X367 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 532 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2578 + -0.0010 × 532 – 2 × 0.1178)
= Exp(3.5108)
= $33.48
August 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,169)
= Exp(a + b × X1,169 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,702 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2578 + -0.0010 × 1,702 + 2 × 0.1178)
= Exp(2.8573)
= $17.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,169)
= Exp(a + b × X1,169 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,702 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2578 + -0.0010 × 1,702 – 2 × 0.1178)
= Exp(2.3861)
= $10.87
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.59% per annum.
- GO price at the close of December 5, 2025 was $11.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 20, 2025
End date: December 5, 2025
a = 12.7037
b = -0.0057
s = 0.0620
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0057) – 1
= -87.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0620) – 1
= 28.13%
August 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.7037 + -0.0057 × 1,717 + 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(3.1112)
= $22.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.7037 + -0.0057 × 1,717 – 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(2.8634)
= $17.52
December 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.7037 + -0.0057 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(2.5057)
= $12.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.7037 + -0.0057 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(2.2579)
= $9.56
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 87.32% per annum.
- GO price at the close of December 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.