Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. The company is headquartered in Emeryville, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.58% per annum.
- GO price at the close of December 3, 2024 was $19.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.46 (2.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12,646.47% per annum.
- GO price at the close of December 3, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.74 (3.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 5, 2023
End date: November 21, 2024
a = 5.4125
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0770
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0770) – 1
= 36.05%
July 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y900)
= Exp(a + b × X900 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,309 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4125 + -0.0014 × 1,309 + 2 × 0.0770)
= Exp(3.6996)
= $40.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y900)
= Exp(a + b × X900 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,309 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4125 + -0.0014 × 1,309 – 2 × 0.0770)
= Exp(3.3918)
= $29.72
November 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4125 + -0.0014 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.0770)
= Exp(2.9795)
= $19.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4125 + -0.0014 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.0770)
= Exp(2.6716)
= $14.46
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.58% per annum.
- GO price at the close of December 3, 2024 was $19.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.46 (2.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 30, 2024
End date: November 29, 2024
a = -21.1205
b = 0.0133
s = 0.0548
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0133) – 1
= 12,646.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0548) – 1
= 24.49%
October 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-21.1205 + 0.0133 × 1,792 + 2 × 0.0548)
= Exp(2.7899)
= $16.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,792 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-21.1205 + 0.0133 × 1,792 – 2 × 0.0548)
= Exp(2.5709)
= $13.08
November 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-21.1205 + 0.0133 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0548)
= Exp(3.1884)
= $24.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-21.1205 + 0.0133 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0548)
= Exp(2.9693)
= $19.48
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12,646.47% per annum.
- GO price at the close of December 3, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.74 (3.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.