# Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. The company is headquartered in Emeryville, California.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.76% per annum.
• GO price at the close of September 16, 2024 was \$16.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
• The secondary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.37% per annum.
• GO price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: July 5, 2023
End date: September 16, 2024

a = 5.3286

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0702

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.76%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0702) – 1
= 32.42%

#### July 5, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y955)
= Exp(a + b × X955 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,387 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3286 + -0.0013 × 1,387 + 2 × 0.0702)
= Exp(3.6671)
= \$39.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y955)
= Exp(a + b × X955 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,387 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3286 + -0.0013 × 1,387 – 2 × 0.0702)
= Exp(3.3863)
= \$29.56

#### September 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3286 + -0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0702)
= Exp(3.0968)
= \$22.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3286 + -0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0702)
= Exp(2.8160)
= \$16.71

#### Description

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.76% per annum.
• GO price at the close of September 16, 2024 was \$16.86 and was inside the primary price channel.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: March 13, 2024
End date: September 16, 2024

a = 7.7292

b = -0.0027

s = 0.0552

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -62.37%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0552) – 1
= 24.70%

#### March 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7292 + -0.0027 × 1,639 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(3.4505)
= \$31.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7292 + -0.0027 × 1,639 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(3.2297)
= \$25.27

#### September 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7292 + -0.0027 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(2.9497)
= \$19.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7292 + -0.0027 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(2.7290)
= \$15.32

#### Description

• The secondary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.37% per annum.
• GO price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.