Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. The company is headquartered in Emeryville, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.76% per annum.
- GO price at the close of September 16, 2024 was $16.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.37% per annum.
- GO price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 5, 2023
End date: September 16, 2024
a = 5.3286
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0702
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0702) – 1
= 32.42%
July 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y955)
= Exp(a + b × X955 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,387 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3286 + -0.0013 × 1,387 + 2 × 0.0702)
= Exp(3.6671)
= $39.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y955)
= Exp(a + b × X955 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,387 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3286 + -0.0013 × 1,387 – 2 × 0.0702)
= Exp(3.3863)
= $29.56
September 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3286 + -0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0702)
= Exp(3.0968)
= $22.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3286 + -0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0702)
= Exp(2.8160)
= $16.71
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.76% per annum.
- GO price at the close of September 16, 2024 was $16.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2024
End date: September 16, 2024
a = 7.7292
b = -0.0027
s = 0.0552
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -62.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0552) – 1
= 24.70%
March 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7292 + -0.0027 × 1,639 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(3.4505)
= $31.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7292 + -0.0027 × 1,639 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(3.2297)
= $25.27
September 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7292 + -0.0027 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(2.9497)
= $19.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7292 + -0.0027 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(2.7290)
= $15.32
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.37% per annum.
- GO price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.