# Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. The company is headquartered in Emeryville, California.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.42% per annum.
• GO price at the close of May 24, 2024 was \$22.62 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by \$5.16 (29.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
• The secondary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.61% per annum.
• GO price at the close of May 24, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by \$0.64 (2.74%).

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: May 11, 2022
End date: April 21, 2023

a = 5.2589

b = -0.0014

s = 0.0773

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.42%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0773) – 1
= 36.23%

#### May 11, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y729)
= Exp(a + b × X729 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,056 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2589 + -0.0014 × 1,056 + 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(3.9153)
= \$50.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y729)
= Exp(a + b × X729 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,056 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2589 + -0.0014 × 1,056 – 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(3.6061)
= \$36.82

#### April 21, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y966)
= Exp(a + b × X966 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2589 + -0.0014 × 1,401 + 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(3.4258)
= \$30.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y966)
= Exp(a + b × X966 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2589 + -0.0014 × 1,401 – 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(3.1166)
= \$22.57

#### Description

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.42% per annum.
• GO price at the close of May 24, 2024 was \$22.62 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by \$5.16 (29.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: September 15, 2022
End date: May 7, 2024

a = 3.8279

b = -0.0003

s = 0.0642

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.61%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0642) – 1
= 29.29%

#### September 15, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y816)
= Exp(a + b × X816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8279 + -0.0003 × 1,183 + 2 × 0.0642)
= Exp(3.5930)
= \$36.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y816)
= Exp(a + b × X816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8279 + -0.0003 × 1,183 – 2 × 0.0642)
= Exp(3.3361)
= \$28.11

#### May 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8279 + -0.0003 × 1,783 + 2 × 0.0642)
= Exp(3.4087)
= \$30.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8279 + -0.0003 × 1,783 – 2 × 0.0642)
= Exp(3.1518)
= \$23.38

#### Description

• The secondary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.61% per annum.
• GO price at the close of May 24, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by \$0.64 (2.74%).