# Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. The company is headquartered in Emeryville, California.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.76% per annum.
- GO price at the close of September 16, 2024 was $16.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.37% per annum.
- GO price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of GO price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: July 5, 2023

End date: September 16, 2024

a = 5.3286

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0702

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1

= -37.76%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0702) – 1

= 32.42%

#### July 5, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{955})

= Exp(a + b × X_{955} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,387 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.3286 + -0.0013 × 1,387 + 2 × 0.0702)

= Exp(3.6671)

= $39.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{955})

= Exp(a + b × X_{955} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,387 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.3286 + -0.0013 × 1,387 – 2 × 0.0702)

= Exp(3.3863)

= $29.56

#### September 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)

= Exp(5.3286 + -0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0702)

= Exp(3.0968)

= $22.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)

= Exp(5.3286 + -0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0702)

= Exp(2.8160)

= $16.71

#### Description

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.76% per annum.
- GO price at the close of September 16, 2024 was $16.86 and was inside the primary price channel.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: March 13, 2024

End date: September 16, 2024

a = 7.7292

b = -0.0027

s = 0.0552

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1

= -62.37%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0552) – 1

= 24.70%

#### March 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,129})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,129} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,639 + 2 × s)

= Exp(7.7292 + -0.0027 × 1,639 + 2 × 0.0552)

= Exp(3.4505)

= $31.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,129})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,129} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,639 – 2 × s)

= Exp(7.7292 + -0.0027 × 1,639 – 2 × 0.0552)

= Exp(3.2297)

= $25.27

#### September 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)

= Exp(7.7292 + -0.0027 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0552)

= Exp(2.9497)

= $19.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)

= Exp(7.7292 + -0.0027 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0552)

= Exp(2.7290)

= $15.32

#### Description

- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 62.37% per annum.
- GO price at the close of September 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.