Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. is a prominent discount grocery retailer based in Emeryville, California, specializing in offering a unique assortment of fresh produce, groceries, and household items at competitive prices. The company operates over 400 stores across the United States, capitalizing on a value-oriented business model that attracts budget-conscious consumers. With a commitment to providing quality products at reduced prices, Grocery Outlet has established a strong brand presence and demonstrated resilience in varying market conditions, positioning itself well for continued growth in the ever-evolving retail landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.59% per annum.
- GO price at the close of December 12, 2025 was $10.83 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 86.26% per annum.
- GO price at the close of December 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 23, 2022
End date: August 5, 2025
a = 4.2511
b = -0.0010
s = 0.1178
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1178) – 1
= 60.20%
May 23, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y362)
= Exp(a + b × X362 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 525 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2511 + -0.0010 × 525 + 2 × 0.1178)
= Exp(3.9820)
= $53.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y362)
= Exp(a + b × X362 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 525 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2511 + -0.0010 × 525 – 2 × 0.1178)
= Exp(3.5108)
= $33.48
August 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,695 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2511 + -0.0010 × 1,695 + 2 × 0.1178)
= Exp(2.8573)
= $17.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,695 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2511 + -0.0010 × 1,695 – 2 × 0.1178)
= Exp(2.3861)
= $10.87
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.59% per annum.
- GO price at the close of December 12, 2025 was $10.83 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 19, 2025
End date: December 12, 2025
a = 12.2776
b = -0.0054
s = 0.0616
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0054) – 1
= -86.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0616) – 1
= 27.93%
August 19, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2776 + -0.0054 × 1,709 + 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(3.1056)
= $22.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,174)
= Exp(a + b × X1,174 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2776 + -0.0054 × 1,709 – 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(2.8593)
= $17.45
December 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2776 + -0.0054 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(2.4802)
= $11.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.2776 + -0.0054 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(2.2338)
= $9.34
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 86.26% per annum.
- GO price at the close of December 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.