Stock Price Trends

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp (GO)

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. The company is headquartered in Emeryville, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.42% per annum.
  • GO price at the close of May 24, 2024 was $22.62 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.16 (29.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.61% per annum.
  • GO price at the close of May 24, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.64 (2.74%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 11, 2022
End date: April 21, 2023

a = 5.2589

b = -0.0014

s = 0.0773

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.42%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0773) – 1
= 36.23%

May 11, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y729)
= Exp(a + b × X729 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,056 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2589 + -0.0014 × 1,056 + 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(3.9153)
= $50.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y729)
= Exp(a + b × X729 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,056 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2589 + -0.0014 × 1,056 – 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(3.6061)
= $36.82

April 21, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y966)
= Exp(a + b × X966 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2589 + -0.0014 × 1,401 + 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(3.4258)
= $30.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y966)
= Exp(a + b × X966 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2589 + -0.0014 × 1,401 – 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(3.1166)
= $22.57

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.42% per annum.
  • GO price at the close of May 24, 2024 was $22.62 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.16 (29.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 15, 2022
End date: May 7, 2024

a = 3.8279

b = -0.0003

s = 0.0642

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.61%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0642) – 1
= 29.29%

September 15, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y816)
= Exp(a + b × X816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8279 + -0.0003 × 1,183 + 2 × 0.0642)
= Exp(3.5930)
= $36.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y816)
= Exp(a + b × X816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8279 + -0.0003 × 1,183 – 2 × 0.0642)
= Exp(3.3361)
= $28.11

May 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8279 + -0.0003 × 1,783 + 2 × 0.0642)
= Exp(3.4087)
= $30.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8279 + -0.0003 × 1,783 – 2 × 0.0642)
= Exp(3.1518)
= $23.38

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 10.61% per annum.
  • GO price at the close of May 24, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.64 (2.74%).