Stock Price Trends

Apple Hospitality REIT Inc (APLE)

Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc. (NYSE: APLE) is a publicly traded real estate investment trust (?

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.89% per annum.
  • APLE price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $12.12 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.66% per annum.
  • APLE price at the close of July 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APLE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: June 30, 2025

a = 5.2819

b = -0.0016

s = 0.0516

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.89%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0516) – 1
= 22.93%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,093)
= Exp(a + b × X1,093 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,584 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2819 + -0.0016 × 1,584 + 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(2.8773)
= $17.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,093)
= Exp(a + b × X1,093 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,584 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2819 + -0.0016 × 1,584 – 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(2.6709)
= $14.45

June 30, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2819 + -0.0016 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(2.5037)
= $12.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2819 + -0.0016 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(2.2972)
= $9.95

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.89% per annum.
  • APLE price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $12.12 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 10, 2025
End date: July 3, 2025

a = 1.9120

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0192

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.66%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0192) – 1
= 7.97%

April 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,739 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9120 + 0.0003 × 1,739 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(2.4758)
= $11.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,739 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9120 + 0.0003 × 1,739 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(2.3991)
= $11.01

July 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9120 + 0.0003 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(2.5012)
= $12.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9120 + 0.0003 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(2.4245)
= $11.30

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.66% per annum.
  • APLE price at the close of July 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.