Stock Price Trends

Apple Hospitality REIT Inc (APLE)

Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc. (NYSE: APLE) is a publicly traded real estate investment trust (?

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.08% per annum.
  • APLE price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $11.85 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.03 (7.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 74.51% per annum.
  • APLE price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APLE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 12, 2021
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 2.5316

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0638

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.08%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0638) – 1
= 29.09%

March 12, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y218)
= Exp(a + b × X218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5316 + 0.0001 × 316 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(2.6856)
= $14.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y218)
= Exp(a + b × X218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5316 + 0.0001 × 316 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(2.4302)
= $11.36

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5316 + 0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(2.8110)
= $16.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5316 + 0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0638)
= Exp(2.5556)
= $12.88

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.08% per annum.
  • APLE price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $11.85 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.03 (7.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 27, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 9.2600

b = -0.0037

s = 0.0375

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0037) – 1
= -74.51%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0375) – 1
= 16.19%

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,733 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2600 + -0.0037 × 1,733 + 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(2.8459)
= $17.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,733 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2600 + -0.0037 × 1,733 – 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(2.6958)
= $14.82

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2600 + -0.0037 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(2.5014)
= $12.20

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2600 + -0.0037 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(2.3514)
= $10.50

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 74.51% per annum.
  • APLE price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.