Stock Price Trends

Park Hotels & Resorts Inc (PK)

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Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 59.72% per annum.
  • PK price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $9.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 227.63% per annum.
  • PK price at the close of April 29, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.01 (0.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 27, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 6.8744

b = -0.0025

s = 0.0236

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -59.72%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0236) – 1
= 9.91%

November 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8744 + -0.0025 × 1,672 + 2 × 0.0236)
= Exp(2.7568)
= $15.75

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8744 + -0.0025 × 1,672 – 2 × 0.0236)
= Exp(2.6623)
= $14.33

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8744 + -0.0025 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0236)
= Exp(2.4429)
= $11.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8744 + -0.0025 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0236)
= Exp(2.3484)
= $10.47

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 59.72% per annum.
  • PK price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $9.90 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 10, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025

a = -3.6226

b = 0.0033

s = 0.0089

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0033) – 1
= 227.63%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0089) – 1
= 3.63%

April 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6226 + 0.0033 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0089)
= Exp(2.2670)
= $9.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6226 + 0.0033 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0089)
= Exp(2.2314)
= $9.31

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6226 + 0.0033 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0089)
= Exp(2.3255)
= $10.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6226 + 0.0033 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0089)
= Exp(2.2899)
= $9.87

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 227.63% per annum.
  • PK price at the close of April 29, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.01 (0.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.