Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB)
Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (NYSE: PEB) is a publicly traded real estate investment trust (REIT) and the largest owner of urban and resort lifestyle hotels in the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.03% per annum.
- PEB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $13.62 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.73 (5.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.40% per annum.
- PEB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PEB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 16, 2021
End date: December 12, 2023
a = 3.6749
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0953
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0953) – 1
= 46.40%
February 16, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y392)
= Exp(a + b × X392 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 571 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6749 + -0.0007 × 571 + 2 × 0.0953)
= Exp(3.4561)
= $31.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y392)
= Exp(a + b × X392 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 571 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6749 + -0.0007 × 571 – 2 × 0.0953)
= Exp(3.0749)
= $21.65
December 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,600 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6749 + -0.0007 × 1,600 + 2 × 0.0953)
= Exp(2.7184)
= $15.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,600 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6749 + -0.0007 × 1,600 – 2 × 0.0953)
= Exp(2.3372)
= $10.35
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.03% per annum.
- PEB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $13.62 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.73 (5.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 22, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.7259
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0767
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0767) – 1
= 35.91%
September 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y796)
= Exp(a + b × X796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,154 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7259 + 0.0000 × 1,154 + 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(2.8347)
= $17.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y796)
= Exp(a + b × X796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,154 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7259 + 0.0000 × 1,154 – 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(2.5279)
= $12.53
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7259 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(2.8087)
= $16.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7259 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0767)
= Exp(2.5019)
= $12.21
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.40% per annum.
- PEB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.