Stock Price Trends

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust (PEB)

pebblebrook hotel trust is a publicly traded real estate investment trust (“reit”) organized to opportunistically acquire and invest primarily in upper upscale, full-service hotels located in urban markets in major gateway cities. the company owns 37 hotels, including 31 wholly owned hotels with a total of 7,402 guest rooms and a 49% joint venture interest in six hotels with a total of 1,777 guest rooms. the company owns, or has an ownership interest in, hotels located in 11 states and the district of columbia, including: san francisco, california; los angeles, california (beverly hills, hollywood, santa monica and west hollywood); boston, massachusetts; new york, new york; san diego, california; portland, oregon; buckhead, georgia; naples, florida; seattle, washington; miami, florida; washington, dc; philadelphia, pennsylvania; columbia river gorge, washington; nashville, tennessee; bethesda, maryland and minneapolis, minnesota. for more information, please visit us at www.pebblebrook

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

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Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.69% per annum.
  • PEB price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $16.33 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.14 (15.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.61% per annum.
  • PEB price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PEB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

March 8, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

December 12, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.69% per annum.
  • PEB price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $16.33 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.14 (15.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

September 22, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.61% per annum.
  • PEB price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.