Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc (SHO)
Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. is a lodging real estate investment trust (REIT) that, as of the date of this release, has interests in 19 hotels with 9,997 rooms.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.36% per annum.
- SHO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $10.19 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.95 (10.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.19% per annum.
- SHO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SHO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 12, 2021
End date: November 13, 2023
a = 2.6637
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0535
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0535) – 1
= 23.85%
February 12, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y391)
= Exp(a + b × X391 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 567 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6637 + -0.0003 × 567 + 2 × 0.0535)
= Exp(2.6007)
= $13.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y391)
= Exp(a + b × X391 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 567 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6637 + -0.0003 × 567 – 2 × 0.0535)
= Exp(2.3869)
= $10.88
November 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,571 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6637 + -0.0003 × 1,571 + 2 × 0.0535)
= Exp(2.2998)
= $9.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,571 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6637 + -0.0003 × 1,571 – 2 × 0.0535)
= Exp(2.0860)
= $8.05
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.36% per annum.
- SHO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $10.19 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.95 (10.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 1.7893
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0554
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0554) – 1
= 24.82%
March 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,322 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7893 + 0.0003 × 1,322 + 2 × 0.0554)
= Exp(2.3168)
= $10.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,322 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7893 + 0.0003 × 1,322 – 2 × 0.0554)
= Exp(2.0951)
= $8.13
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7893 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0554)
= Exp(2.4756)
= $11.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7893 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0554)
= Exp(2.2539)
= $9.52
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.19% per annum.
- SHO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.