Leslies Inc (LESL)
Leslie's, Inc. is a direct-to-consumer spa and pool care brand in the United States. The company is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.30% per annum.
- LESL price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $4.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 43.48% per annum.
- LESL price at the close of May 10, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.89 (15.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LESL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 17, 2021
End date: December 13, 2023
a = 4.1155
b = -0.0021
s = 0.1454
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1454) – 1
= 78.91%
December 17, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y286)
= Exp(a + b × X286 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1155 + -0.0021 × 414 + 2 × 0.1454)
= Exp(3.5427)
= $34.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y286)
= Exp(a + b × X286 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1155 + -0.0021 × 414 – 2 × 0.1454)
= Exp(2.9610)
= $19.32
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y785)
= Exp(a + b × X785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,140 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1155 + -0.0021 × 1,140 + 2 × 0.1454)
= Exp(2.0281)
= $7.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y785)
= Exp(a + b × X785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,140 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1155 + -0.0021 × 1,140 – 2 × 0.1454)
= Exp(1.4464)
= $4.25
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.30% per annum.
- LESL price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $4.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 14, 2023
End date: March 28, 2024
a = 0.7164
b = 0.0010
s = 0.1301
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 43.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1301) – 1
= 68.26%
July 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y679)
= Exp(a + b × X679 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 988 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7164 + 0.0010 × 988 + 2 × 0.1301)
= Exp(1.9538)
= $7.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y679)
= Exp(a + b × X679 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 988 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7164 + 0.0010 × 988 – 2 × 0.1301)
= Exp(1.4334)
= $4.19
March 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y857)
= Exp(a + b × X857 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7164 + 0.0010 × 1,246 + 2 × 0.1301)
= Exp(2.2090)
= $9.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y857)
= Exp(a + b × X857 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7164 + 0.0010 × 1,246 – 2 × 0.1301)
= Exp(1.6886)
= $5.41
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 43.48% per annum.
- LESL price at the close of May 10, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.89 (15.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.