Stock Price Trends

Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW)

Lowe's Companies, Inc. is an American retail company specializing in home improvement. Headquartered in Mooresville, North Carolina, the company operates a chain of retail stores in the United States and Canada.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.06% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $221.15 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 54.62% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 30, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 7.3401

b = -0.0011

s = 0.0341

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.06%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0341) – 1
= 14.61%

September 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,112)
= Exp(a + b × X1,112 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,615 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3401 + -0.0011 × 1,615 + 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(5.6977)
= $298.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,112)
= Exp(a + b × X1,112 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,615 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3401 + -0.0011 × 1,615 – 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(5.5614)
= $260.18

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3401 + -0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(5.4753)
= $238.73

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3401 + -0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(5.3390)
= $208.30

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.06% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $221.15 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 17, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 9.3097

b = -0.0022

s = 0.0227

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -54.62%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0227) – 1
= 9.50%

January 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,724 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3097 + -0.0022 × 1,724 + 2 × 0.0227)
= Exp(5.6229)
= $276.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,724 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3097 + -0.0022 × 1,724 – 2 × 0.0227)
= Exp(5.5321)
= $252.68

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3097 + -0.0022 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0227)
= Exp(5.4043)
= $222.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.3097 + -0.0022 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0227)
= Exp(5.3135)
= $203.06

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 54.62% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.