Stock Price Trends

Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW)

Lowe's Companies, Inc. is an American retail company specializing in home improvement. Headquartered in Mooresville, North Carolina, the company operates a chain of retail stores in the United States and Canada.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.77% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $229.87 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 74.71% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of April 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $9.26 (3.87%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 25, 2021
End date: February 22, 2024

a = 5.2101

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0824

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.77%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0824) – 1
= 39.02%

March 25, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y481)
= Exp(a + b × X481 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 696 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2101 + 0.0001 × 696 + 2 × 0.0824)
= Exp(5.4270)
= $227.46

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y481)
= Exp(a + b × X481 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 696 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2101 + 0.0001 × 696 – 2 × 0.0824)
= Exp(5.0976)
= $163.62

February 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2101 + 0.0001 × 1,760 + 2 × 0.0824)
= Exp(5.5068)
= $246.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2101 + 0.0001 × 1,760 – 2 × 0.0824)
= Exp(5.1773)
= $177.21

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.77% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $229.87 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 3, 2023
End date: April 9, 2024

a = 2.7542

b = 0.0015

s = 0.0327

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 74.71%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0327) – 1
= 13.96%

October 3, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,116)
= Exp(a + b × X1,116 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,618 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7542 + 0.0015 × 1,618 + 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(5.2928)
= $198.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,116)
= Exp(a + b × X1,116 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,618 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7542 + 0.0015 × 1,618 – 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(5.1621)
= $174.53

April 9, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7542 + 0.0015 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(5.5817)
= $265.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7542 + 0.0015 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(5.4510)
= $232.99

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 74.71% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of April 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $9.26 (3.87%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.