Stock Price Trends

Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW)

Lowe's Companies, Inc. is an American retail company specializing in home improvement. Headquartered in Mooresville, North Carolina, the company operates a chain of retail stores in the United States and Canada.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.72% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $234.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.04% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 25, 2021
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 5.1616

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0832

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.72%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0832) – 1
= 39.51%

March 25, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y419)
= Exp(a + b × X419 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 608 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1616 + 0.0001 × 608 + 2 × 0.0832)
= Exp(5.4049)
= $222.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y419)
= Exp(a + b × X419 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 608 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1616 + 0.0001 × 608 – 2 × 0.0832)
= Exp(5.0719)
= $159.48

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1616 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0832)
= Exp(5.5587)
= $259.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1616 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0832)
= Exp(5.2257)
= $185.99

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 4.72% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $234.77 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024

a = 4.8775

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0552

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.04%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0552) – 1
= 24.69%

May 5, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y700)
= Exp(a + b × X700 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,014 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8775 + 0.0003 × 1,014 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(5.3037)
= $201.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y700)
= Exp(a + b × X700 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,014 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8775 + 0.0003 × 1,014 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(5.0830)
= $161.25

July 25, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8775 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(5.5566)
= $258.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8775 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(5.3359)
= $207.66

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.04% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.