Stock Price Trends

Floor & Decor Holdings Inc (FND)

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. is a multi-channel specialty retailer of hard surface flooring and related accessories. The company is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 82.60% per annum.
  • FND price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $72.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 88.06% per annum.
  • FND price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FND price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 24, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 12.9777

b = -0.0048

s = 0.0395

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0048) – 1
= -82.60%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0395) – 1
= 17.13%

January 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,731 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9777 + -0.0048 × 1,731 + 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(4.7640)
= $117.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,191)
= Exp(a + b × X1,191 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,731 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9777 + -0.0048 × 1,731 – 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(4.6059)
= $100.08

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9777 + -0.0048 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(4.3137)
= $74.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.9777 + -0.0048 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(4.1556)
= $63.79

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 82.60% per annum.
  • FND price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $72.50 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 24, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 14.8358

b = -0.0058

s = 0.0390

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0058) – 1
= -88.06%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0390) – 1
= 16.88%

February 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.8358 + -0.0058 × 1,762 + 2 × 0.0390)
= Exp(4.6525)
= $104.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,211)
= Exp(a + b × X1,211 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.8358 + -0.0058 × 1,762 – 2 × 0.0390)
= Exp(4.4965)
= $89.70

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.8358 + -0.0058 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0390)
= Exp(4.2856)
= $72.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.8358 + -0.0058 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0390)
= Exp(4.1296)
= $62.15

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 88.06% per annum.
  • FND price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.