Vector Group Ltd (VGR)
Vector Group Ltd. manufactures and sells cigarettes in the United States. The company is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.34% per annum.
- VGR price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $10.84 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.05% per annum.
- VGR price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VGR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 29, 2022
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 2.8194
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0560
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0560) – 1
= 25.10%
December 29, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y916)
= Exp(a + b × X916 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,326 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8194 + -0.0003 × 1,326 + 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(2.5753)
= $13.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y916)
= Exp(a + b × X916 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,326 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8194 + -0.0003 × 1,326 – 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(2.3514)
= $10.50
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8194 + -0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(2.4416)
= $11.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8194 + -0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(2.2176)
= $9.19
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.34% per annum.
- VGR price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $10.84 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 7, 2023
End date: May 10, 2024
a = 2.1674
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0382
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0382) – 1
= 16.49%
August 7, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1674 + 0.0001 × 1,547 + 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(2.4120)
= $11.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,547 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1674 + 0.0001 × 1,547 – 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(2.2594)
= $9.58
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1674 + 0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(2.4422)
= $11.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1674 + 0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(2.2896)
= $9.87
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.05% per annum.
- VGR price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.