Vector Group Ltd (VGR)
Vector Group Ltd. manufactures and sells cigarettes in the United States. The company is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.24% per annum.
- VGR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $12.52 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.06 (9.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.49% per annum.
- VGR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.71 (5.97%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VGR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 21, 2022
End date: July 15, 2024
a = 2.6474
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0571
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0571) – 1
= 25.65%
December 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y859)
= Exp(a + b × X859 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6474 + -0.0002 × 1,244 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(2.5420)
= $12.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y859)
= Exp(a + b × X859 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6474 + -0.0002 × 1,244 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(2.3136)
= $10.11
July 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6474 + -0.0002 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(2.4410)
= $11.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6474 + -0.0002 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(2.2127)
= $9.14
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 6.24% per annum.
- VGR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $12.52 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.06 (9.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 11, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 1.9351
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0403
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 9.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0403) – 1
= 17.49%
August 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,018)
= Exp(a + b × X1,018 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,477 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9351 + 0.0002 × 1,477 + 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(2.3826)
= $10.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,018)
= Exp(a + b × X1,018 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,477 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9351 + 0.0002 × 1,477 – 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(2.2215)
= $9.22
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9351 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(2.4694)
= $11.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9351 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(2.3082)
= $10.06
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.49% per annum.
- VGR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.71 (5.97%).