Altria Group (MO)
Altria Group, Inc. (previously known as Philip Morris Companies, Inc.) is an American corporation and one of the world's largest producers and marketers of tobacco, cigarettes and related products. It operates worldwide and is headquartered in unincorporated Henrico County, Virginia, just outside the city of Richmond.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 60.09% per annum.
- MO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $49.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 267.13% per annum.
- MO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 18, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 1.5193
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0231
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 60.09%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0231) – 1
= 9.68%
January 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,637 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5193 + 0.0013 × 1,637 + 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(3.6759)
= $39.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,637 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5193 + 0.0013 × 1,637 – 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(3.5835)
= $36.00
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5193 + 0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(3.9196)
= $50.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5193 + 0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(3.8272)
= $45.93
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 60.09% per annum.
- MO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $49.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 27, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = -2.5975
b = 0.0036
s = 0.0097
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0036) – 1
= 267.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0097) – 1
= 3.94%
June 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.5975 + 0.0036 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(3.8283)
= $45.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.5975 + 0.0036 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(3.7897)
= $44.24
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.5975 + 0.0036 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(3.9281)
= $50.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.5975 + 0.0036 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(3.8894)
= $48.88
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 267.13% per annum.
- MO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.