Altria Group (MO)
Altria Group, Inc. (previously known as Philip Morris Companies, Inc.) is an American corporation and one of the world's largest producers and marketers of tobacco, cigarettes and related products. It operates worldwide and is headquartered in unincorporated Henrico County, Virginia, just outside the city of Richmond.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.78% per annum.
- MO price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $43.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.93% per annum.
- MO price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 3, 2022
End date: March 11, 2024
a = 3.7745
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0539
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0539) – 1
= 24.05%
January 3, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y677)
= Exp(a + b × X677 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 980 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7745 + 0.0000 × 980 + 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(3.8341)
= $46.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y677)
= Exp(a + b × X677 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 980 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7745 + 0.0000 × 980 – 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(3.6186)
= $37.28
March 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7745 + 0.0000 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(3.7948)
= $44.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7745 + 0.0000 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.0539)
= Exp(3.5793)
= $35.85
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.78% per annum.
- MO price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $43.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 13, 2022
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 3.5374
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0396
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0396) – 1
= 17.15%
June 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y788)
= Exp(a + b × X788 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,141 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5374 + 0.0001 × 1,141 + 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(3.7372)
= $41.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y788)
= Exp(a + b × X788 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,141 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5374 + 0.0001 × 1,141 – 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(3.5789)
= $35.83
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5374 + 0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(3.8094)
= $45.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5374 + 0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0396)
= Exp(3.6511)
= $38.52
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.93% per annum.
- MO price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.