Universal Corporation (UVV)
Universal Corporation processes and supplies leaf tobacco and plant ingredients worldwide. The company is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 245.33% per annum.
- UVV price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $54.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 178.43% per annum.
- UVV price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UVV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 10, 2024
End date: May 10, 2024
a = -2.2045
b = 0.0034
s = 0.0103
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0034) – 1
= 245.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0103) – 1
= 4.19%
April 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.2045 + 0.0034 × 1,794 + 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(3.9075)
= $49.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,236)
= Exp(a + b × X1,236 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.2045 + 0.0034 × 1,794 – 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(3.8664)
= $47.77
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.2045 + 0.0034 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(4.0093)
= $55.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.2045 + 0.0034 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(3.9683)
= $52.89
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 245.33% per annum.
- UVV price at the close of May 10, 2024 was $54.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 18, 2024
End date: May 10, 2024
a = -1.1326
b = 0.0028
s = 0.0102
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 178.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0102) – 1
= 4.18%
April 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1326 + 0.0028 × 1,802 + 2 × 0.0102)
= Exp(3.9432)
= $51.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1326 + 0.0028 × 1,802 – 2 × 0.0102)
= Exp(3.9023)
= $49.51
May 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1326 + 0.0028 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0102)
= Exp(4.0050)
= $54.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1326 + 0.0028 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0102)
= Exp(3.9640)
= $52.67
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 178.43% per annum.
- UVV price at the close of May 10, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.