Stock Price Trends

Universal Corporation (UVV)

Universal Corporation processes and supplies leaf tobacco and plant ingredients worldwide. The company is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 73.41% per annum.
  • UVV price at the close of April 19, 2024 was $51.46 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.50 (14.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.24% per annum.
  • UVV price at the close of April 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UVV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: March 14, 2024

a = 10.3406

b = -0.0036

s = 0.0420

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0036) – 1
= -73.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0420) – 1
= 18.28%

December 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.3406 + -0.0036 × 1,696 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.2702)
= $71.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,696 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.3406 + -0.0036 × 1,696 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.1023)
= $60.48

March 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,788 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.3406 + -0.0036 × 1,788 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(3.9364)
= $51.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,233)
= Exp(a + b × X1,233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,788 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.3406 + -0.0036 × 1,788 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(3.7685)
= $43.31

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 73.41% per annum.
  • UVV price at the close of April 19, 2024 was $51.46 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.50 (14.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 13, 2024
End date: April 19, 2024

a = 3.0757

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0199

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.24%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0199) – 1
= 8.27%

February 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0757 + 0.0005 × 1,758 + 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(3.9223)
= $50.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0757 + 0.0005 × 1,758 – 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(3.8429)
= $46.66

April 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0757 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(3.9526)
= $52.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0757 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0199)
= Exp(3.8732)
= $48.09

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.24% per annum.
  • UVV price at the close of April 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.