# Universal Corporation (UVV)

Universal Corporation processes and supplies leaf tobacco and plant ingredients worldwide. The company is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 73.41% per annum.
- UVV price at the close of April 19, 2024 was $51.46 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.50 (14.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.24% per annum.
- UVV price at the close of April 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of UVV price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: December 13, 2023

End date: March 14, 2024

a = 10.3406

b = -0.0036

s = 0.0420

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0036) – 1

= -73.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0420) – 1

= 18.28%

#### December 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,171})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,171} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,696 + 2 × s)

= Exp(10.3406 + -0.0036 × 1,696 + 2 × 0.0420)

= Exp(4.2702)

= $71.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,171})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,171} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,696 – 2 × s)

= Exp(10.3406 + -0.0036 × 1,696 – 2 × 0.0420)

= Exp(4.1023)

= $60.48

#### March 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,233})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,233} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,788 + 2 × s)

= Exp(10.3406 + -0.0036 × 1,788 + 2 × 0.0420)

= Exp(3.9364)

= $51.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,233})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,233} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,788 – 2 × s)

= Exp(10.3406 + -0.0036 × 1,788 – 2 × 0.0420)

= Exp(3.7685)

= $43.31

#### Description

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 73.41% per annum.
- UVV price at the close of April 19, 2024 was $51.46 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.50 (14.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: February 13, 2024

End date: April 19, 2024

a = 3.0757

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0199

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1

= 18.24%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0199) – 1

= 8.27%

#### February 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,212})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,212} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,758 + 2 × s)

= Exp(3.0757 + 0.0005 × 1,758 + 2 × 0.0199)

= Exp(3.9223)

= $50.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,212})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,212} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,758 – 2 × s)

= Exp(3.0757 + 0.0005 × 1,758 – 2 × 0.0199)

= Exp(3.8429)

= $46.66

#### April 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)

= Exp(3.0757 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0199)

= Exp(3.9526)

= $52.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)

= Exp(3.0757 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0199)

= Exp(3.8732)

= $48.09

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 18.24% per annum.
- UVV price at the close of April 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.