# Universal Corporation (UVV)

Universal Corporation processes and supplies leaf tobacco and plant ingredients worldwide. The company is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.67% per annum.
• UVV price at the close of August 12, 2024 was \$51.28 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by \$30.71 (149.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
• The secondary trend is increasing.
• The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.89% per annum.
• UVV price at the close of August 12, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
• The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UVV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: March 5, 2021
End date: December 3, 2021

a = 4.3052

b = -0.0007

s = 0.0350

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.67%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0350) – 1
= 15.01%

#### March 5, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y393)
= Exp(a + b × X393 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 570 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3052 + -0.0007 × 570 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(3.9533)
= \$52.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y393)
= Exp(a + b × X393 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 570 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3052 + -0.0007 × 570 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(3.8135)
= \$45.31

#### December 3, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y583)
= Exp(a + b × X583 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 843 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3052 + -0.0007 × 843 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(3.7513)
= \$42.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y583)
= Exp(a + b × X583 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 843 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3052 + -0.0007 × 843 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(3.6114)
= \$37.02

#### Description

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.67% per annum.
• UVV price at the close of August 12, 2024 was \$51.28 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by \$30.71 (149.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: March 5, 2021
End date: August 12, 2024

a = 3.7319

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0793

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.89%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0793) – 1
= 37.31%

#### March 5, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y393)
= Exp(a + b × X393 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 570 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7319 + 0.0001 × 570 + 2 × 0.0793)
= Exp(3.9500)
= \$51.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y393)
= Exp(a + b × X393 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 570 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7319 + 0.0001 × 570 – 2 × 0.0793)
= Exp(3.6329)
= \$37.82

#### August 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7319 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0793)
= Exp(4.0812)
= \$59.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7319 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0793)
= Exp(3.7642)
= \$43.13

#### Description

• The secondary trend is increasing.
• The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.89% per annum.
• UVV price at the close of August 12, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.