# Universal Corporation (UVV)

Universal Corporation processes and supplies leaf tobacco and plant ingredients worldwide. The company is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.67% per annum.
- UVV price at the close of August 12, 2024 was $51.28 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $30.71 (149.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.89% per annum.
- UVV price at the close of August 12, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of UVV price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: March 5, 2021

End date: December 3, 2021

a = 4.3052

b = -0.0007

s = 0.0350

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1

= -23.67%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0350) – 1

= 15.01%

#### March 5, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{393})

= Exp(a + b × X_{393} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 570 + 2 × s)

= Exp(4.3052 + -0.0007 × 570 + 2 × 0.0350)

= Exp(3.9533)

= $52.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{393})

= Exp(a + b × X_{393} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 570 – 2 × s)

= Exp(4.3052 + -0.0007 × 570 – 2 × 0.0350)

= Exp(3.8135)

= $45.31

#### December 3, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{583})

= Exp(a + b × X_{583} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 843 + 2 × s)

= Exp(4.3052 + -0.0007 × 843 + 2 × 0.0350)

= Exp(3.7513)

= $42.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{583})

= Exp(a + b × X_{583} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 843 – 2 × s)

= Exp(4.3052 + -0.0007 × 843 – 2 × 0.0350)

= Exp(3.6114)

= $37.02

#### Description

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 23.67% per annum.
- UVV price at the close of August 12, 2024 was $51.28 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $30.71 (149.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: March 5, 2021

End date: August 12, 2024

a = 3.7319

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0793

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1

= 3.89%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0793) – 1

= 37.31%

#### March 5, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{393})

= Exp(a + b × X_{393} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 570 + 2 × s)

= Exp(3.7319 + 0.0001 × 570 + 2 × 0.0793)

= Exp(3.9500)

= $51.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{393})

= Exp(a + b × X_{393} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 570 – 2 × s)

= Exp(3.7319 + 0.0001 × 570 – 2 × 0.0793)

= Exp(3.6329)

= $37.82

#### August 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)

= Exp(3.7319 + 0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0793)

= Exp(4.0812)

= $59.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,257})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,257} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)

= Exp(3.7319 + 0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0793)

= Exp(3.7642)

= $43.13

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.89% per annum.
- UVV price at the close of August 12, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.