Universal Corporation (UVV)
Universal Corporation processes and supplies leaf tobacco and plant ingredients worldwide. The company is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.03% per annum.
- UVV price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $53.49 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.25 (6.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.26% per annum.
- UVV price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.89 (7.85%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UVV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 1, 2023
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 5.9511
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0617
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0617) – 1
= 28.01%
December 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,096)
= Exp(a + b × X1,096 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,589 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9511 + -0.0012 × 1,589 + 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(4.1970)
= $66.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,096)
= Exp(a + b × X1,096 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,589 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9511 + -0.0012 × 1,589 – 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(3.9500)
= $51.94
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9511 + -0.0012 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(3.9346)
= $51.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9511 + -0.0012 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0617)
= Exp(3.6877)
= $39.95
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.03% per annum.
- UVV price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $53.49 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.25 (6.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 23, 2024
End date: July 16, 2024
a = 2.2207
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0132
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0132) – 1
= 5.43%
May 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2207 + 0.0009 × 1,763 + 2 × 0.0132)
= Exp(3.8468)
= $46.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2207 + 0.0009 × 1,763 – 2 × 0.0132)
= Exp(3.7939)
= $44.43
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2207 + 0.0009 × 1,817 + 2 × 0.0132)
= Exp(3.8958)
= $49.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2207 + 0.0009 × 1,817 – 2 × 0.0132)
= Exp(3.8429)
= $46.66
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.26% per annum.
- UVV price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.89 (7.85%).