Philip Morris International Inc (PM)
Philip Morris International Inc. (PMI) is a Swiss-American multinational cigarette and tobacco manufacturing company, with products sold in over 180 countries. The most recognized and best selling product of the company is Marlboro.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.19% per annum.
- PM price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $95.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.35% per annum.
- PM price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 23, 2021
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 4.3745
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0456
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0456) – 1
= 20.01%
April 23, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y501)
= Exp(a + b × X501 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 725 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3745 + 0.0001 × 725 + 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(4.5280)
= $92.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y501)
= Exp(a + b × X501 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 725 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3745 + 0.0001 × 725 – 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(4.3457)
= $77.14
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3745 + 0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(4.6226)
= $101.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3745 + 0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(4.4402)
= $84.79
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.19% per annum.
- PM price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $95.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 30, 2022
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 4.6188
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0280
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0280) – 1
= 11.87%
November 30, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y906)
= Exp(a + b × X906 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,311 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6188 + -0.0001 × 1,311 + 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(4.5897)
= $98.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y906)
= Exp(a + b × X906 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,311 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6188 + -0.0001 × 1,311 – 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(4.4775)
= $88.02
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6188 + -0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(4.5563)
= $95.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6188 + -0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(4.4442)
= $85.13
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.35% per annum.
- PM price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.