ArcBest Corp (ARCB)
ArcBest Corporation offers integrated freight forwarding and logistics services. The company is headquartered in Fort Smith, Arkansas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.76% per annum.
- ARCB price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $56.73 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.26 (6.99%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 87.55% per annum.
- ARCB price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ARCB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 6.9420
b = -0.0014
s = 0.1068
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1068) – 1
= 53.30%
February 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y946)
= Exp(a + b × X946 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,373 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9420 + -0.0014 × 1,373 + 2 × 0.1068)
= Exp(5.1863)
= $178.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y946)
= Exp(a + b × X946 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,373 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9420 + -0.0014 × 1,373 – 2 × 0.1068)
= Exp(4.7591)
= $116.64
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9420 + -0.0014 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1068)
= Exp(4.5380)
= $93.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9420 + -0.0014 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1068)
= Exp(4.1108)
= $60.99
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.76% per annum.
- ARCB price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $56.73 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.26 (6.99%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 14, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 14.4735
b = -0.0057
s = 0.0428
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0057) – 1
= -87.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0428) – 1
= 18.69%
January 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.4735 + -0.0057 × 1,720 + 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(4.7418)
= $114.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.4735 + -0.0057 × 1,720 – 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(4.5705)
= $96.59
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.4735 + -0.0057 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(4.1425)
= $62.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.4735 + -0.0057 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0428)
= Exp(3.9712)
= $53.05
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 87.55% per annum.
- ARCB price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.