Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)
Heartland Express, Inc., is a short- to medium-haul truck freight carrier in the United States and Canada. The company is headquartered in North Liberty, Iowa.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.75% per annum.
- HTLD price at the close of September 12, 2025 was $8.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.16% per annum.
- HTLD price at the close of September 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HTLD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 18, 2022
End date: September 12, 2025
a = 3.3846
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0789
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0789) – 1
= 37.11%
November 18, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y551)
= Exp(a + b × X551 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 795 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3846 + -0.0007 × 795 + 2 × 0.0789)
= Exp(3.0082)
= $20.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y551)
= Exp(a + b × X551 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 795 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3846 + -0.0007 × 795 – 2 × 0.0789)
= Exp(2.6926)
= $14.77
September 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3846 + -0.0007 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0789)
= Exp(2.3167)
= $10.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3846 + -0.0007 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0789)
= Exp(2.0011)
= $7.40
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.75% per annum.
- HTLD price at the close of September 12, 2025 was $8.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 16, 2024
End date: September 12, 2025
a = 4.2334
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0686
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0686) – 1
= 31.60%
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2334 + -0.0012 × 1,401 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(2.7077)
= $15.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2334 + -0.0012 × 1,401 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(2.4332)
= $11.40
September 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2334 + -0.0012 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(2.2057)
= $9.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2334 + -0.0012 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(1.9311)
= $6.90
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.16% per annum.
- HTLD price at the close of September 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.