Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)
Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) is a leading short- to medium-haul truck freight carrier operating primarily in the United States and Canada, headquartered in North Liberty, Iowa. The company specializes in providing reliable transportation solutions with a focus on regional markets, leveraging a modern fleet and advanced logistics technology to optimize efficiency and service quality. With a strong reputation for safety and customer service, Heartland Express is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for freight transportation in an evolving logistics landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.85% per annum.
- HTLD price at the close of November 26, 2025 was $7.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 32.88% per annum.
- HTLD price at the close of November 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HTLD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 11, 2023
End date: November 26, 2025
a = 3.3831
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0772
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0772) – 1
= 36.20%
January 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y533)
= Exp(a + b × X533 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 775 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3831 + -0.0007 × 775 + 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(2.9866)
= $19.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y533)
= Exp(a + b × X533 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 775 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3831 + -0.0007 × 775 – 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(2.6777)
= $14.55
November 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3831 + -0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(2.2402)
= $9.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3831 + -0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0772)
= Exp(1.9313)
= $6.90
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.85% per annum.
- HTLD price at the close of November 26, 2025 was $7.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 16, 2024
End date: November 26, 2025
a = 4.0039
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0672
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.88%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0672) – 1
= 30.84%
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,327 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0039 + -0.0011 × 1,327 + 2 × 0.0672)
= Exp(2.6887)
= $14.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,327 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0039 + -0.0011 × 1,327 – 2 × 0.0672)
= Exp(2.4199)
= $11.24
November 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0039 + -0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0672)
= Exp(2.1447)
= $8.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0039 + -0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0672)
= Exp(1.8759)
= $6.53
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 32.88% per annum.
- HTLD price at the close of November 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.