Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)
Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) is a leading short- to medium-haul truck freight carrier operating primarily in the United States and Canada, headquartered in North Liberty, Iowa. The company specializes in providing reliable transportation solutions with a focus on regional markets, leveraging a modern fleet and advanced logistics technology to optimize efficiency and service quality. With a strong reputation for safety and customer service, Heartland Express is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for freight transportation in an evolving logistics landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.24% per annum.
- HTLD price at the close of January 9, 2026 was $10.48 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.31 (14.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 524.40% per annum.
- HTLD price at the close of January 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HTLD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 18, 2022
End date: December 2, 2025
a = 3.3180
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0775
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0775) – 1
= 36.37%
November 18, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y469)
= Exp(a + b × X469 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 676 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3180 + -0.0007 × 676 + 2 × 0.0775)
= Exp(3.0072)
= $20.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y469)
= Exp(a + b × X469 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 676 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3180 + -0.0007 × 676 – 2 × 0.0775)
= Exp(2.6970)
= $14.84
December 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3180 + -0.0007 × 1,786 + 2 × 0.0775)
= Exp(2.2422)
= $9.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3180 + -0.0007 × 1,786 – 2 × 0.0775)
= Exp(1.9320)
= $6.90
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.24% per annum.
- HTLD price at the close of January 9, 2026 was $10.48 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.31 (14.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 3, 2025
End date: January 9, 2026
a = -6.8371
b = 0.0050
s = 0.0489
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0050) – 1
= 524.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0489) – 1
= 21.62%
November 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.8371 + 0.0050 × 1,757 + 2 × 0.0489)
= Exp(2.0776)
= $7.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,209)
= Exp(a + b × X1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.8371 + 0.0050 × 1,757 – 2 × 0.0489)
= Exp(1.8819)
= $6.57
January 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.8371 + 0.0050 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0489)
= Exp(2.4138)
= $11.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.8371 + 0.0050 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0489)
= Exp(2.2181)
= $9.19
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 524.40% per annum.
- HTLD price at the close of January 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.