Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)
Heartland Express, Inc., is a short- to medium-haul truck freight carrier in the United States and Canada. The company is headquartered in North Liberty, Iowa.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.84% per annum.
- HTLD price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $13.18 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.86 (7.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 112.72% per annum.
- HTLD price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HTLD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 11, 2023
End date: June 25, 2024
a = 3.8849
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0599
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0599) – 1
= 27.07%
January 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y871)
= Exp(a + b × X871 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,262 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8849 + -0.0008 × 1,262 + 2 × 0.0599)
= Exp(2.9712)
= $19.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y871)
= Exp(a + b × X871 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,262 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8849 + -0.0008 × 1,262 – 2 × 0.0599)
= Exp(2.7316)
= $15.36
June 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8849 + -0.0008 × 1,793 + 2 × 0.0599)
= Exp(2.5364)
= $12.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8849 + -0.0008 × 1,793 – 2 × 0.0599)
= Exp(2.2968)
= $9.94
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.84% per annum.
- HTLD price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $13.18 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.86 (7.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 15, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = -1.2240
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0267
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 112.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0267) – 1
= 11.28%
April 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.2240 + 0.0021 × 1,722 + 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(2.3904)
= $10.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,722 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.2240 + 0.0021 × 1,722 – 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(2.2836)
= $9.81
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.2240 + 0.0021 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(2.6014)
= $13.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.2240 + 0.0021 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0267)
= Exp(2.4945)
= $12.12
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 112.72% per annum.
- HTLD price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.