Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL)
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) is a premier American less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier that excels in providing a comprehensive range of freight services across regional, inter-regional, and national networks. Known for its operational excellence, the company offers a diverse suite of logistics solutions, including expedited transportation, supply chain consulting, transportation management, truckload brokerage, and warehousing services. With a steadfast commitment to customer satisfaction and a focus on innovative, technology-driven strategies, Old Dominion Freight Line is well-positioned to continue its growth trajectory in the competitive transportation sector.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.38% per annum.
- ODFL price at the close of January 5, 2026 was $163.73 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.54% per annum.
- ODFL price at the close of January 5, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $8.19 (5.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ODFL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 26, 2023
End date: January 5, 2026
a = 5.7771
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0848
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0848) – 1
= 40.36%
July 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y641)
= Exp(a + b × X641 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 931 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7771 + -0.0004 × 931 + 2 × 0.0848)
= Exp(5.5507)
= $257.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y641)
= Exp(a + b × X641 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 931 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7771 + -0.0004 × 931 – 2 × 0.0848)
= Exp(5.2117)
= $183.41
January 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7771 + -0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0848)
= Exp(5.1705)
= $176.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7771 + -0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0848)
= Exp(4.8315)
= $125.40
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.38% per annum.
- ODFL price at the close of January 5, 2026 was $163.73 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 18, 2024
End date: January 5, 2026
a = 6.5157
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0710
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0710) – 1
= 32.86%
September 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y930)
= Exp(a + b × X930 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,351 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5157 + -0.0009 × 1,351 + 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(5.4653)
= $236.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y930)
= Exp(a + b × X930 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,351 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5157 + -0.0009 × 1,351 – 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(5.1811)
= $177.88
January 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5157 + -0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(5.0469)
= $155.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5157 + -0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(4.7628)
= $117.07
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.54% per annum.
- ODFL price at the close of January 5, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $8.19 (5.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.