Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL)
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. is an American less than truckload shipping (LTL) company. It offers regional, inter-regional and national LTL service. In addition to its core LTL services, the company offers logistics services including ground and air expedited transportation, supply chain consulting, transportation management, truckload brokerage, container delivery and warehousing, as well as household moving services.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 15.52% per annum.
- ODFL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $202.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.45% per annum.
- ODFL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ODFL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 12, 2021
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.5968
b = 0.0004
s = 0.1130
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1130) – 1
= 57.15%
March 12, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y409)
= Exp(a + b × X409 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 592 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5968 + 0.0004 × 592 + 2 × 0.1130)
= Exp(5.0567)
= $157.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y409)
= Exp(a + b × X409 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 592 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5968 + 0.0004 × 592 – 2 × 0.1130)
= Exp(4.6047)
= $99.96
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5968 + 0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1130)
= Exp(5.5436)
= $255.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5968 + 0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1130)
= Exp(5.0916)
= $162.65
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 15.52% per annum.
- ODFL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $202.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 18, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 5.6854
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0660
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0660) – 1
= 30.24%
July 18, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y999)
= Exp(a + b × X999 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,450 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6854 + -0.0002 × 1,450 + 2 × 0.0660)
= Exp(5.4666)
= $236.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y999)
= Exp(a + b × X999 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,450 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6854 + -0.0002 × 1,450 – 2 × 0.0660)
= Exp(5.2024)
= $181.70
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6854 + -0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0660)
= Exp(5.3760)
= $216.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6854 + -0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0660)
= Exp(5.1119)
= $165.98
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.45% per annum.
- ODFL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.