Werner Enterprises Inc (WERN)
Werner Enterprises, Inc., a transportation and logistics company, is engaged in the transportation of general freight shipments in interstate and intrastate commerce in the United States, Mexico, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.69% per annum.
- WERN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $38.85 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.05 (0.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 24.01% per annum.
- WERN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.82 (4.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WERN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 18, 2023
End date: July 24, 2024
a = 4.4255
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0434
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0434) – 1
= 18.97%
January 18, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y876)
= Exp(a + b × X876 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,272 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4255 + -0.0005 × 1,272 + 2 × 0.0434)
= Exp(3.9176)
= $50.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y876)
= Exp(a + b × X876 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,272 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4255 + -0.0005 × 1,272 – 2 × 0.0434)
= Exp(3.7439)
= $42.26
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4255 + -0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0434)
= Exp(3.6590)
= $38.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4255 + -0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0434)
= Exp(3.4853)
= $32.63
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.69% per annum.
- WERN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $38.85 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.05 (0.12%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: July 24, 2024
a = 4.9260
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0296
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -24.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0296) – 1
= 12.59%
December 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,602 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9260 + -0.0008 × 1,602 + 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(3.7803)
= $43.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,602 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9260 + -0.0008 × 1,602 – 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(3.6617)
= $38.93
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9260 + -0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(3.6125)
= $37.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9260 + -0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0296)
= Exp(3.4940)
= $32.92
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 24.01% per annum.
- WERN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.82 (4.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.