Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC)
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the steel industry. The company is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.20% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of July 11, 2025 was $52.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.79% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of July 11, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.67 (7.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HCC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 16, 2024
End date: July 10, 2025
a = 5.6089
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0823
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0823) – 1
= 39.01%
April 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y945)
= Exp(a + b × X945 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,372 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6089 + -0.0010 × 1,372 + 2 × 0.0823)
= Exp(4.4218)
= $83.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y945)
= Exp(a + b × X945 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,372 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6089 + -0.0010 × 1,372 – 2 × 0.0823)
= Exp(4.0925)
= $59.89
July 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6089 + -0.0010 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0823)
= Exp(3.9785)
= $53.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6089 + -0.0010 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0823)
= Exp(3.6491)
= $38.44
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.20% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of July 11, 2025 was $52.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 27, 2024
End date: July 10, 2025
a = 6.5412
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0729
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0729) – 1
= 33.86%
September 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,536 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5412 + -0.0015 × 1,536 + 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(4.3370)
= $76.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,536 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5412 + -0.0015 × 1,536 – 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(4.0454)
= $57.13
July 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5412 + -0.0015 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(3.8995)
= $49.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5412 + -0.0015 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(3.6078)
= $36.89
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.79% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of July 11, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.67 (7.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.