Stock Price Trends

Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC)

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the steel industry. The company is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.20% per annum.
  • HCC price at the close of July 11, 2025 was $52.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.79% per annum.
  • HCC price at the close of July 11, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.67 (7.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HCC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 16, 2024
End date: July 10, 2025

a = 5.6089

b = -0.0010

s = 0.0823

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.20%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0823) – 1
= 39.01%

April 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y945)
= Exp(a + b × X945 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,372 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6089 + -0.0010 × 1,372 + 2 × 0.0823)
= Exp(4.4218)
= $83.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y945)
= Exp(a + b × X945 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,372 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6089 + -0.0010 × 1,372 – 2 × 0.0823)
= Exp(4.0925)
= $59.89

July 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6089 + -0.0010 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0823)
= Exp(3.9785)
= $53.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6089 + -0.0010 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0823)
= Exp(3.6491)
= $38.44

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.20% per annum.
  • HCC price at the close of July 11, 2025 was $52.97 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 27, 2024
End date: July 10, 2025

a = 6.5412

b = -0.0015

s = 0.0729

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0729) – 1
= 33.86%

September 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,536 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5412 + -0.0015 × 1,536 + 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(4.3370)
= $76.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,536 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5412 + -0.0015 × 1,536 – 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(4.0454)
= $57.13

July 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5412 + -0.0015 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(3.8995)
= $49.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5412 + -0.0015 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0729)
= Exp(3.6078)
= $36.89

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.79% per annum.
  • HCC price at the close of July 11, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.67 (7.44%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.