Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC)
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the steel industry. The company is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.17% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $48.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 60.15% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HCC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 11, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 5.6186
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0877
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -29.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0877) – 1
= 42.00%
April 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,442 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6186 + -0.0009 × 1,442 + 2 × 0.0877)
= Exp(4.4313)
= $84.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,442 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6186 + -0.0009 × 1,442 – 2 × 0.0877)
= Exp(4.0807)
= $59.18
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6186 + -0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0877)
= Exp(4.0694)
= $58.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6186 + -0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0877)
= Exp(3.7188)
= $41.21
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.17% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $48.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 1, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 8.3714
b = -0.0025
s = 0.0620
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -60.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0620) – 1
= 28.12%
November 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3714 + -0.0025 × 1,646 + 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(4.3459)
= $77.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3714 + -0.0025 × 1,646 – 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(4.0980)
= $60.22
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3714 + -0.0025 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(3.8946)
= $49.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3714 + -0.0025 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0620)
= Exp(3.6468)
= $38.35
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 60.15% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.