Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC)
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) is a leading producer and exporter of non-thermal metallurgical coal, primarily serving the global steel industry. Headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama, the company benefits from strategic access to key transportation infrastructure, enhancing its ability to deliver high-quality coal products to domestic and international markets. With a strong focus on operational excellence and sustainability, Warrior Met Coal is positioned to capitalize on the growing global demand for metallurgical coal, driven by the resurgence in steel production. As a significant player in the coal sector, the company is dedicated to maintaining its leadership through innovative practices and a commitment to environmental stewardship.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 170.86% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of March 20, 2026 was $88.54 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.54 (2.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.00% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of March 20, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.64 (8.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HCC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: February 11, 2026
a = -0.3228
b = 0.0027
s = 0.0725
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 170.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0725) – 1
= 33.62%
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,473 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3228 + 0.0027 × 1,473 + 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(3.8434)
= $46.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,473 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3228 + 0.0027 × 1,473 – 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(3.5535)
= $34.94
February 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3228 + 0.0027 × 1,787 + 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(4.7006)
= $110.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,787 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.3228 + 0.0027 × 1,787 – 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(4.4107)
= $82.33
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 170.86% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of March 20, 2026 was $88.54 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.54 (2.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 8, 2026
End date: March 10, 2026
a = 11.2701
b = -0.0038
s = 0.0313
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0038) – 1
= -75.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0313) – 1
= 13.34%
January 8, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,753 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2701 + -0.0038 × 1,753 + 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(4.6752)
= $107.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,753 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2701 + -0.0038 × 1,753 – 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(4.5499)
= $94.62
March 10, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2701 + -0.0038 × 1,814 + 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(4.4435)
= $85.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.2701 + -0.0038 × 1,814 – 2 × 0.0313)
= Exp(4.3183)
= $75.06
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.00% per annum.
- HCC price at the close of March 20, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.64 (8.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.