Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR)
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. is a mining company. The company is headquartered in Bristol, Tennessee.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.58% per annum.
- AMR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $296.07 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $34.14 (13.03%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 78.54% per annum.
- AMR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 18, 2022
End date: August 31, 2023
a = 4.2528
b = 0.0006
s = 0.1078
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1078) – 1
= 53.91%
February 18, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y648)
= Exp(a + b × X648 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 938 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2528 + 0.0006 × 938 + 2 × 0.1078)
= Exp(5.0333)
= $153.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y648)
= Exp(a + b × X648 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 938 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2528 + 0.0006 × 938 – 2 × 0.1078)
= Exp(4.6021)
= $99.70
August 31, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,032)
= Exp(a + b × X1,032 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,497 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2528 + 0.0006 × 1,497 + 2 × 0.1078)
= Exp(5.3700)
= $214.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,032)
= Exp(a + b × X1,032 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,497 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2528 + 0.0006 × 1,497 – 2 × 0.1078)
= Exp(4.9388)
= $139.60
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 24.58% per annum.
- AMR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $296.07 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $34.14 (13.03%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 22, 2022
End date: June 13, 2024
a = 3.0300
b = 0.0016
s = 0.1606
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 78.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1606) – 1
= 90.07%
June 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y732)
= Exp(a + b × X732 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,062 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0300 + 0.0016 × 1,062 + 2 × 0.1606)
= Exp(5.0376)
= $154.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y732)
= Exp(a + b × X732 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,062 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0300 + 0.0016 × 1,062 – 2 × 0.1606)
= Exp(4.3954)
= $81.08
June 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0300 + 0.0016 × 1,784 + 2 × 0.1606)
= Exp(6.1842)
= $485.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0300 + 0.0016 × 1,784 – 2 × 0.1606)
= Exp(5.5420)
= $255.18
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 78.54% per annum.
- AMR price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.