Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)
Steel Dynamics, Inc., is a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.72% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $127.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.29% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.97 (3.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of STLD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 21, 2022
End date: February 21, 2024
a = 4.3390
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0769
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0769) – 1
= 36.03%
October 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y817)
= Exp(a + b × X817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3390 + 0.0002 × 1,183 + 2 × 0.0769)
= Exp(4.7637)
= $117.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y817)
= Exp(a + b × X817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3390 + 0.0002 × 1,183 – 2 × 0.0769)
= Exp(4.4560)
= $86.14
February 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,150)
= Exp(a + b × X1,150 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,671 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3390 + 0.0002 × 1,671 + 2 × 0.0769)
= Exp(4.8755)
= $131.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,150)
= Exp(a + b × X1,150 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,671 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3390 + 0.0002 × 1,671 – 2 × 0.0769)
= Exp(4.5677)
= $96.32
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.72% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $127.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 3, 2023
End date: June 3, 2024
a = 3.1180
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0499
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0499) – 1
= 22.08%
May 3, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y949)
= Exp(a + b × X949 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,377 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1180 + 0.0010 × 1,377 + 2 × 0.0499)
= Exp(4.6271)
= $102.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y949)
= Exp(a + b × X949 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,377 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1180 + 0.0010 × 1,377 – 2 × 0.0499)
= Exp(4.4276)
= $83.73
June 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1180 + 0.0010 × 1,774 + 2 × 0.0499)
= Exp(5.0334)
= $153.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1180 + 0.0010 × 1,774 – 2 × 0.0499)
= Exp(4.8339)
= $125.70
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.29% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $4.97 (3.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.