Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD)
Steel Dynamics, Inc., is a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.72% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of May 20, 2024 was $133.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 46.64% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of May 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of STLD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 21, 2022
End date: February 21, 2024
a = 4.3274
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0769
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0769) – 1
= 36.03%
October 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y863)
= Exp(a + b × X863 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3274 + 0.0002 × 1,249 + 2 × 0.0769)
= Exp(4.7673)
= $117.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y863)
= Exp(a + b × X863 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3274 + 0.0002 × 1,249 – 2 × 0.0769)
= Exp(4.4595)
= $86.45
February 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3274 + 0.0002 × 1,737 + 2 × 0.0769)
= Exp(4.8790)
= $131.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3274 + 0.0002 × 1,737 – 2 × 0.0769)
= Exp(4.5713)
= $96.67
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.72% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of May 20, 2024 was $133.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 4, 2023
End date: May 20, 2024
a = 3.0134
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0500
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 46.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0500) – 1
= 22.14%
May 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y996)
= Exp(a + b × X996 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,444 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0134 + 0.0010 × 1,444 + 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(4.6280)
= $102.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y996)
= Exp(a + b × X996 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,444 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0134 + 0.0010 × 1,444 – 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(4.4280)
= $83.77
May 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0134 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(5.0287)
= $152.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0134 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(4.8287)
= $125.05
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 46.64% per annum.
- STLD price at the close of May 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.