Stock Price Trends

Metallus, Inc (MTUS)

Metallus Inc. manufactures and sells alloy steel, and carbon and micro-alloy steel products in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Canton, Ohio.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.24% per annum.
  • MTUS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $12.75 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 41.89% per annum.
  • MTUS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTUS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 29, 2023
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 4.1556

b = -0.0008

s = 0.1047

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.24%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1047) – 1
= 52.00%

June 29, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y796)
= Exp(a + b × X796 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1556 + -0.0008 × 1,155 + 2 × 0.1047)
= Exp(3.4021)
= $30.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y796)
= Exp(a + b × X796 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1556 + -0.0008 × 1,155 – 2 × 0.1047)
= Exp(2.9834)
= $19.75

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1556 + -0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1047)
= Exp(2.8435)
= $17.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1556 + -0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1047)
= Exp(2.4248)
= $11.30

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.24% per annum.
  • MTUS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $12.75 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 20, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 5.2355

b = -0.0015

s = 0.0923

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -41.89%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0923) – 1
= 44.64%

March 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y978)
= Exp(a + b × X978 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,420 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2355 + -0.0015 × 1,420 + 2 × 0.0923)
= Exp(3.3082)
= $27.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y978)
= Exp(a + b × X978 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,420 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2355 + -0.0015 × 1,420 – 2 × 0.0923)
= Exp(2.9391)
= $18.90

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2355 + -0.0015 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0923)
= Exp(2.7059)
= $14.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2355 + -0.0015 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0923)
= Exp(2.3368)
= $10.35

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 41.89% per annum.
  • MTUS price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.