Stock Price Trends

Metallus, Inc (MTUS)

Metallus Inc. manufactures and sells alloy steel, and carbon and micro-alloy steel products in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Canton, Ohio.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.13% per annum.
  • MTUS price at the close of September 17, 2025 was $16.48 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.25 (8.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 120.17% per annum.
  • MTUS price at the close of September 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTUS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 27, 2023
End date: June 26, 2025

a = 4.0313

b = -0.0008

s = 0.1030

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.13%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1030) – 1
= 51.00%

June 27, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y696)
= Exp(a + b × X696 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,012 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0313 + -0.0008 × 1,012 + 2 × 0.1030)
= Exp(3.3977)
= $29.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y696)
= Exp(a + b × X696 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,012 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0313 + -0.0008 × 1,012 – 2 × 0.1030)
= Exp(2.9856)
= $19.80

June 26, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0313 + -0.0008 × 1,742 + 2 × 0.1030)
= Exp(2.7920)
= $16.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0313 + -0.0008 × 1,742 – 2 × 0.1030)
= Exp(2.3799)
= $10.80

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.13% per annum.
  • MTUS price at the close of September 17, 2025 was $16.48 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.25 (8.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: September 17, 2025

a = -1.0839

b = 0.0022

s = 0.0472

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 120.17%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0472) – 1
= 20.80%

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,658 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0839 + 0.0022 × 1,658 + 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(2.5957)
= $13.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,140)
= Exp(a + b × X1,140 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,658 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0839 + 0.0022 × 1,658 – 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(2.4067)
= $11.10

September 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0839 + 0.0022 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(2.9568)
= $19.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0839 + 0.0022 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(2.7679)
= $15.92

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 120.17% per annum.
  • MTUS price at the close of September 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.