Stock Price Trends

Metallus, Inc (MTUS)

Metallus Inc. manufactures and sells alloy steel, and carbon and micro-alloy steel products in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Canton, Ohio.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.29% per annum.
  • MTUS price at the close of July 2, 2025 was $16.58 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.39 (2.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 145.88% per annum.
  • MTUS price at the close of July 2, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.32 (1.96%).
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTUS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 29, 2023
End date: June 26, 2025

a = 4.1024

b = -0.0008

s = 0.1025

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.29%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1025) – 1
= 50.70%

June 29, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y751)
= Exp(a + b × X751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,088 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1024 + -0.0008 × 1,088 + 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(3.3980)
= $29.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y751)
= Exp(a + b × X751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,088 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1024 + -0.0008 × 1,088 – 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(2.9879)
= $19.84

June 26, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1024 + -0.0008 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(2.7895)
= $16.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1024 + -0.0008 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.1025)
= Exp(2.3794)
= $10.80

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.29% per annum.
  • MTUS price at the close of July 2, 2025 was $16.58 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.39 (2.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: July 2, 2025

a = -1.7875

b = 0.0025

s = 0.0427

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 145.88%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0427) – 1
= 18.60%

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,732 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7875 + 0.0025 × 1,732 + 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(2.5669)
= $13.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,732 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7875 + 0.0025 × 1,732 – 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(2.3963)
= $10.98

July 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7875 + 0.0025 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(2.7887)
= $16.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7875 + 0.0025 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(2.6181)
= $13.71

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 145.88% per annum.
  • MTUS price at the close of July 2, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.32 (1.96%).