Stock Price Trends

MarineMax Inc (HZO)

MarineMax, Inc. is a yacht and pleasure boat retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Clearwater, Florida.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.51% per annum.
  • HZO price at the close of August 29, 2025 was $26.35 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.22 (63.35%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.04% per annum.
  • HZO price at the close of August 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HZO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 8, 2021
End date: June 5, 2023

a = 4.2622

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0979

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.51%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0979) – 1
= 47.95%

March 8, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y129)
= Exp(a + b × X129 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2622 + -0.0009 × 189 + 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(4.2842)
= $72.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y129)
= Exp(a + b × X129 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2622 + -0.0009 × 189 – 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(3.8926)
= $49.04

June 5, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y694)
= Exp(a + b × X694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,008 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2622 + -0.0009 × 1,008 + 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(3.5311)
= $34.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y694)
= Exp(a + b × X694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,008 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2622 + -0.0009 × 1,008 – 2 × 0.0979)
= Exp(3.1394)
= $23.09

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.51% per annum.
  • HZO price at the close of August 29, 2025 was $26.35 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $10.22 (63.35%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 8, 2021
End date: August 29, 2025

a = 4.0288

b = -0.0005

s = 0.1339

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.04%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1339) – 1
= 70.85%

March 8, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y129)
= Exp(a + b × X129 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0288 + -0.0005 × 189 + 2 × 0.1339)
= Exp(4.2061)
= $67.09

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y129)
= Exp(a + b × X129 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0288 + -0.0005 × 189 – 2 × 0.1339)
= Exp(3.6705)
= $39.27

August 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0288 + -0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1339)
= Exp(3.4232)
= $30.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0288 + -0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1339)
= Exp(2.8876)
= $17.95

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.04% per annum.
  • HZO price at the close of August 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.