MarineMax Inc (HZO)
MarineMax, Inc. is a yacht and pleasure boat retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Clearwater, Florida.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.20% per annum.
- HZO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $37.10 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.96 (11.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.26% per annum.
- HZO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HZO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 8, 2021
End date: May 31, 2024
a = 4.3202
b = -0.0006
s = 0.1236
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1236) – 1
= 63.92%
February 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y387)
= Exp(a + b × X387 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 563 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3202 + -0.0006 × 563 + 2 × 0.1236)
= Exp(4.2384)
= $69.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y387)
= Exp(a + b × X387 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 563 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3202 + -0.0006 × 563 – 2 × 0.1236)
= Exp(3.7442)
= $42.27
May 31, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3202 + -0.0006 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.1236)
= Exp(3.5328)
= $34.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3202 + -0.0006 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.1236)
= Exp(3.0385)
= $20.87
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.20% per annum.
- HZO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $37.10 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.96 (11.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 8, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.4563
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0964
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0964) – 1
= 47.07%
September 8, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y786)
= Exp(a + b × X786 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,140 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4563 + 0.0000 × 1,140 + 2 × 0.0964)
= Exp(3.6410)
= $38.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y786)
= Exp(a + b × X786 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,140 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4563 + 0.0000 × 1,140 – 2 × 0.0964)
= Exp(3.2553)
= $25.93
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4563 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0964)
= Exp(3.6361)
= $37.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4563 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0964)
= Exp(3.2503)
= $25.80
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.26% per annum.
- HZO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.