Stock Price Trends

MarineMax Inc (HZO)

MarineMax, Inc. is a yacht and pleasure boat retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Clearwater, Florida.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.12% per annum.
  • HZO price at the close of July 15, 2025 was $25.07 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.92 (46.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.14% per annum.
  • HZO price at the close of July 15, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HZO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 1, 2021
End date: June 5, 2023

a = 4.2929

b = -0.0009

s = 0.1000

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.12%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1000) – 1
= 49.15%

March 1, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y156)
= Exp(a + b × X156 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 228 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2929 + -0.0009 × 228 + 2 × 0.1000)
= Exp(4.2865)
= $72.71

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y156)
= Exp(a + b × X156 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 228 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2929 + -0.0009 × 228 – 2 × 0.1000)
= Exp(3.8867)
= $48.75

June 5, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y726)
= Exp(a + b × X726 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,054 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2929 + -0.0009 × 1,054 + 2 × 0.1000)
= Exp(3.5393)
= $34.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y726)
= Exp(a + b × X726 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,054 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2929 + -0.0009 × 1,054 – 2 × 0.1000)
= Exp(3.1395)
= $23.09

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.12% per annum.
  • HZO price at the close of July 15, 2025 was $25.07 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.92 (46.21%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 1, 2021
End date: July 15, 2025

a = 4.0527

b = -0.0005

s = 0.1348

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.14%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1348) – 1
= 71.47%

March 1, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y156)
= Exp(a + b × X156 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 228 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0527 + -0.0005 × 228 + 2 × 0.1348)
= Exp(4.2124)
= $67.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y156)
= Exp(a + b × X156 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 228 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0527 + -0.0005 × 228 – 2 × 0.1348)
= Exp(3.6731)
= $39.38

July 15, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0527 + -0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1348)
= Exp(3.4421)
= $31.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0527 + -0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1348)
= Exp(2.9029)
= $18.23

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.14% per annum.
  • HZO price at the close of July 15, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.