Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH)
Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. is a specialty retailer and distributor of professional beauty products. The company is headquartered in Denton, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.04% per annum.
- SBH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $11.03 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.47 (4.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 117.51% per annum.
- SBH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.47 (18.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SBH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 2, 2021
End date: December 11, 2023
a = 3.5488
b = -0.0008
s = 0.1248
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1248) – 1
= 64.76%
March 2, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y402)
= Exp(a + b × X402 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 585 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5488 + -0.0008 × 585 + 2 × 0.1248)
= Exp(3.3366)
= $28.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y402)
= Exp(a + b × X402 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 585 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5488 + -0.0008 × 585 – 2 × 0.1248)
= Exp(2.8372)
= $17.07
December 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,599 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5488 + -0.0008 × 1,599 + 2 × 0.1248)
= Exp(2.5359)
= $12.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,599 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5488 + -0.0008 × 1,599 – 2 × 0.1248)
= Exp(2.0365)
= $7.66
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.04% per annum.
- SBH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $11.03 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.47 (4.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 16, 2023
End date: April 2, 2024
a = -1.0399
b = 0.0021
s = 0.1224
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 117.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1224) – 1
= 63.17%
August 16, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,482 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0399 + 0.0021 × 1,482 + 2 × 0.1224)
= Exp(2.3600)
= $10.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,482 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0399 + 0.0021 × 1,482 – 2 × 0.1224)
= Exp(1.8704)
= $6.49
April 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0399 + 0.0021 × 1,712 + 2 × 0.1224)
= Exp(2.8496)
= $17.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0399 + 0.0021 × 1,712 – 2 × 0.1224)
= Exp(2.3600)
= $10.59
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 117.51% per annum.
- SBH price at the close of July 25, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.47 (18.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.