Sally Beauty Holdings Inc (SBH)
Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. is a specialty retailer and distributor of professional beauty products. The company is headquartered in Denton, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 68.92% per annum.
- SBH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $8.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.84% per annum.
- SBH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SBH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 28, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 7.9022
b = -0.0032
s = 0.0479
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0032) – 1
= -68.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0479) – 1
= 21.14%
October 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,643 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9022 + -0.0032 × 1,643 + 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(2.7372)
= $15.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,643 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9022 + -0.0032 × 1,643 – 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(2.5454)
= $12.75
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9022 + -0.0032 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(2.1545)
= $8.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9022 + -0.0032 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0479)
= Exp(1.9627)
= $7.12
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 68.92% per annum.
- SBH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $8.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 7, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 6.2845
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0292
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0292) – 1
= 12.39%
February 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2845 + -0.0023 × 1,745 + 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(2.3259)
= $10.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2845 + -0.0023 × 1,745 – 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(2.2091)
= $9.11
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2845 + -0.0023 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(2.1417)
= $8.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2845 + -0.0023 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(2.0249)
= $7.58
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.84% per annum.
- SBH price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.