Academy Sports Outdoors Inc (ASO)
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc., is a retailer of sporting goods and outdoor recreational products in the United States. The company is headquartered in Katy, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 75.23% per annum.
- ASO price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $53.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.95% per annum.
- ASO price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ASO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 26, 2024
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 9.0500
b = -0.0038
s = 0.0304
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0038) – 1
= -75.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0304) – 1
= 12.93%
February 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y853)
= Exp(a + b × X853 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0500 + -0.0038 × 1,242 + 2 × 0.0304)
= Exp(4.3619)
= $78.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y853)
= Exp(a + b × X853 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0500 + -0.0038 × 1,242 – 2 × 0.0304)
= Exp(4.2403)
= $69.43
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0500 + -0.0038 × 1,323 + 2 × 0.0304)
= Exp(4.0522)
= $57.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0500 + -0.0038 × 1,323 – 2 × 0.0304)
= Exp(3.9306)
= $50.94
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 75.23% per annum.
- ASO price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $53.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 9, 2024
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 6.6772
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0217
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0217) – 1
= 9.07%
April 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y883)
= Exp(a + b × X883 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,285 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6772 + -0.0020 × 1,285 + 2 × 0.0217)
= Exp(4.1401)
= $62.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y883)
= Exp(a + b × X883 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,285 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6772 + -0.0020 × 1,285 – 2 × 0.0217)
= Exp(4.0533)
= $57.58
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6772 + -0.0020 × 1,323 + 2 × 0.0217)
= Exp(4.0638)
= $58.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y911)
= Exp(a + b × X911 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6772 + -0.0020 × 1,323 – 2 × 0.0217)
= Exp(3.9769)
= $53.35
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.95% per annum.
- ASO price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.