Stock Price Trends

Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc (DKS)

DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc., is a sporting goods retailer primarily in the eastern United States. The company is headquartered in Coraopolis, Pennsylvania.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 74.47% per annum.
  • DKS price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $189.87 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.06 (0.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.14% per annum.
  • DKS price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DKS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 22, 2025
End date: April 23, 2025

a = 11.9887

b = -0.0037

s = 0.0395

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0037) – 1
= -74.47%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0395) – 1
= 17.10%

January 22, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9887 + -0.0037 × 1,729 + 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(5.5999)
= $270.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9887 + -0.0037 × 1,729 – 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(5.4420)
= $230.91

April 23, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9887 + -0.0037 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(5.2595)
= $192.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.9887 + -0.0037 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0395)
= Exp(5.1016)
= $164.29

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 74.47% per annum.
  • DKS price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $189.87 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.06 (0.56%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 3.9467

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0341

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.14%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0341) – 1
= 14.61%

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9467 + 0.0007 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(5.2761)
= $195.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,239)
= Exp(a + b × X1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9467 + 0.0007 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(5.1398)
= $170.68

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9467 + 0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(5.2936)
= $199.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9467 + 0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(5.1573)
= $173.69

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.14% per annum.
  • DKS price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.