Stock Price Trends

Five Below Inc (FIVE)

Five Below, Inc. is a specialty value retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.75% per annum.
  • FIVE price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $75.32 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 76.12% per annum.
  • FIVE price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.30 (0.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FIVE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 1, 2023
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 6.9479

b = -0.0014

s = 0.1838

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1838) – 1
= 108.57%

February 1, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y695)
= Exp(a + b × X695 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,008 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9479 + -0.0014 × 1,008 + 2 × 0.1838)
= Exp(5.8701)
= $354.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y695)
= Exp(a + b × X695 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,008 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9479 + -0.0014 × 1,008 – 2 × 0.1838)
= Exp(5.1350)
= $169.87

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9479 + -0.0014 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1838)
= Exp(4.6986)
= $109.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9479 + -0.0014 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1838)
= Exp(3.9635)
= $52.64

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.75% per annum.
  • FIVE price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $75.32 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 5, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 11.3386

b = -0.0039

s = 0.0704

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0039) – 1
= -76.12%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0704) – 1
= 32.51%

December 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3386 + -0.0039 × 1,681 + 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(4.8828)
= $132.00

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3386 + -0.0039 × 1,681 – 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(4.6013)
= $99.61

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3386 + -0.0039 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(4.3177)
= $75.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3386 + -0.0039 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(4.0362)
= $56.61

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 76.12% per annum.
  • FIVE price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.30 (0.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.