# Five Below, Inc. (FIVE)

the philadelphia-based company is one of the fastest growing retailers in the country with more than 400 stores in 21 states. catering to teens, pre-teens and beyond, five below carries an ever-evolving and exciting assortment of cell phone cases and chargers, remote control cars, yoga pants, graphic tees, nail polish, footballs and soccer balls, tons of candy and seasonal must-haves for easter, halloween, christmas and more. everything, everyday, is just $5 and below. its stores are a vibrant, colorful and high-energy destination. five below products are grouped into one of eight in-store worlds: style, room, sports, tech, crafts, party, candy and now. five below’s unique assortment features leading brands such as lego®, wilson®, hasbro™ and peeps® and hot licenses from disney® and marvel® such as frozen, despicable me, avengers and star wars™. rounding out the assortment is merchandise packed with quality and value made exclusively for five below. five below was founded in 2002 by

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

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#### Key facts

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.97% per annum.
- FIVE price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $200.81 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $67.01 (50.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 83.47% per annum.
- FIVE price at the close of March 1, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $100.28 (33.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of FIVE price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date:

End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × ) – 1

=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × ) – 1

=

#### December 1, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)

= Exp( + × + 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)

= Exp( + × – 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

#### November 21, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)

= Exp( + × + 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)

= Exp( + × – 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

#### Description

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.97% per annum.
- FIVE price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $200.81 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $67.01 (50.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date:

End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × ) – 1

=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × ) – 1

=

#### May 5, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)

= Exp( + × + 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)

= Exp( + × – 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

#### May 18, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)

= Exp( + × + 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{})

= Exp(a + b × X_{} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)

= Exp( + × – 2 × )

= Exp()

= $

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 83.47% per annum.
- FIVE price at the close of March 1, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $100.28 (33.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.