Five Below Inc (FIVE)
Five Below, Inc. is a specialty value retailer in the United States. The company is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.75% per annum.
- FIVE price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $75.32 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 76.12% per annum.
- FIVE price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.30 (0.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FIVE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 1, 2023
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 6.9479
b = -0.0014
s = 0.1838
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1838) – 1
= 108.57%
February 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y695)
= Exp(a + b × X695 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,008 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9479 + -0.0014 × 1,008 + 2 × 0.1838)
= Exp(5.8701)
= $354.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y695)
= Exp(a + b × X695 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,008 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9479 + -0.0014 × 1,008 – 2 × 0.1838)
= Exp(5.1350)
= $169.87
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9479 + -0.0014 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1838)
= Exp(4.6986)
= $109.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9479 + -0.0014 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1838)
= Exp(3.9635)
= $52.64
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.75% per annum.
- FIVE price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $75.32 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 5, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025
a = 11.3386
b = -0.0039
s = 0.0704
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0039) – 1
= -76.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0704) – 1
= 32.51%
December 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3386 + -0.0039 × 1,681 + 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(4.8828)
= $132.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,159)
= Exp(a + b × X1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3386 + -0.0039 × 1,681 – 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(4.6013)
= $99.61
April 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3386 + -0.0039 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(4.3177)
= $75.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.3386 + -0.0039 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0704)
= Exp(4.0362)
= $56.61
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 76.12% per annum.
- FIVE price at the close of April 28, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.30 (0.40%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.