Stock Price Trends

Five Below, Inc. (FIVE)

the philadelphia-based company is one of the fastest growing retailers in the country with more than 400 stores in 21 states. catering to teens, pre-teens and beyond, five below carries an ever-evolving and exciting assortment of cell phone cases and chargers, remote control cars, yoga pants, graphic tees, nail polish, footballs and soccer balls, tons of candy and seasonal must-haves for easter, halloween, christmas and more. everything, everyday, is just $5 and below. its stores are a vibrant, colorful and high-energy destination. five below products are grouped into one of eight in-store worlds: style, room, sports, tech, crafts, party, candy and now. five below’s unique assortment features leading brands such as lego®, wilson®, hasbro™ and peeps® and hot licenses from disney® and marvel® such as frozen, despicable me, avengers and star wars™. rounding out the assortment is merchandise packed with quality and value made exclusively for five below. five below was founded in 2002 by

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

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Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.97% per annum.
  • FIVE price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $200.81 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $67.01 (50.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 83.47% per annum.
  • FIVE price at the close of March 1, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $100.28 (33.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FIVE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

December 1, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

November 21, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.97% per annum.
  • FIVE price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $200.81 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $67.01 (50.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

May 5, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

May 18, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 83.47% per annum.
  • FIVE price at the close of March 1, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $100.28 (33.31%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.