Five Below Inc (FIVE)
Five Below, Inc. is a leading specialty retailer based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, focused on providing a wide range of trend-right products for teens and tweens at compelling price points, typically under $5. The company's innovative store design and engaging shopping experience cater to a youthful demographic, distinguishing it in the highly competitive retail landscape. With a robust expansion strategy, Five Below continues to increase its store footprint across the United States, positioning itself for sustained growth in the value retail sector. This unique market positioning, combined with a strong commitment to affordability and customer experience, makes Five Below an attractive investment opportunity.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 110.47% per annum.
- FIVE price at the close of February 13, 2026 was $205.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 225.47% per annum.
- FIVE price at the close of February 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FIVE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 12, 2025
End date: February 13, 2026
a = 1.5866
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0470
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 110.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0470) – 1
= 20.70%
May 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,062)
= Exp(a + b × X1,062 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,544 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5866 + 0.0020 × 1,544 + 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(4.8287)
= $125.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,062)
= Exp(a + b × X1,062 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,544 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5866 + 0.0020 × 1,544 – 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(4.6406)
= $103.61
February 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5866 + 0.0020 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(5.3935)
= $219.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5866 + 0.0020 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0470)
= Exp(5.2054)
= $182.25
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 110.47% per annum.
- FIVE price at the close of February 13, 2026 was $205.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 4, 2025
End date: February 13, 2026
a = -0.5366
b = 0.0032
s = 0.0447
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 225.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0447) – 1
= 19.56%
November 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5366 + 0.0032 × 1,720 + 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(5.1136)
= $166.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,720 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5366 + 0.0032 × 1,720 – 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(4.9350)
= $139.08
February 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5366 + 0.0032 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(5.4402)
= $230.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5366 + 0.0032 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0447)
= Exp(5.2616)
= $192.79
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 225.47% per annum.
- FIVE price at the close of February 13, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.