PepsiCo Inc (PEP)
PepsiCo, Inc. is an American based multinational food, snack, and beverage corporation headquartered in Harrison, New York, in the hamlet of Purchase. PepsiCo's business encompasses all aspects of the food and beverage market. It oversees the manufacturing, distribution, and marketing of its products.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.37% per annum.
- PEP price at the close of May 1, 2024 was $175.15 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.76% per annum.
- PEP price at the close of May 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PEP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 24, 2022
End date: April 23, 2024
a = 5.2933
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0392
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0392) – 1
= 16.96%
October 24, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y877)
= Exp(a + b × X877 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,271 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2933 + -0.0001 × 1,271 + 2 × 0.0392)
= Exp(5.2522)
= $190.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y877)
= Exp(a + b × X877 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,271 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2933 + -0.0001 × 1,271 – 2 × 0.0392)
= Exp(5.0955)
= $163.28
April 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2933 + -0.0001 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.0392)
= Exp(5.2007)
= $181.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,252)
= Exp(a + b × X1,252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2933 + -0.0001 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.0392)
= Exp(5.0441)
= $155.10
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.37% per annum.
- PEP price at the close of May 1, 2024 was $175.15 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 5, 2023
End date: May 1, 2024
a = 4.5490
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0177
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0177) – 1
= 7.32%
October 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,115)
= Exp(a + b × X1,115 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,617 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5490 + 0.0003 × 1,617 + 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(5.1162)
= $166.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,115)
= Exp(a + b × X1,115 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,617 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5490 + 0.0003 × 1,617 – 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(5.0455)
= $155.33
May 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5490 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(5.1849)
= $178.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5490 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0177)
= Exp(5.1143)
= $166.38
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.76% per annum.
- PEP price at the close of May 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.