Stock Price Trends

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP)

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. is a beverage company in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.37% per annum.
  • KDP price at the close of June 18, 2025 was $33.21 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.02 (0.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.42% per annum.
  • KDP price at the close of June 18, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KDP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 6, 2021
End date: April 24, 2024

a = 3.5597

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0567

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.37%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0567) – 1
= 25.45%

April 6, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y198)
= Exp(a + b × X198 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 288 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5597 + -0.0001 × 288 + 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(3.6461)
= $38.32

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y198)
= Exp(a + b × X198 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 288 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5597 + -0.0001 × 288 – 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(3.4194)
= $30.55

April 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y966)
= Exp(a + b × X966 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,402 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5597 + -0.0001 × 1,402 + 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(3.5416)
= $34.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y966)
= Exp(a + b × X966 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,402 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5597 + -0.0001 × 1,402 – 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(3.3149)
= $27.52

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.37% per annum.
  • KDP price at the close of June 18, 2025 was $33.21 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.02 (0.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 28, 2023
End date: June 18, 2025

a = 3.2201

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0532

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.42%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0532) – 1
= 23.72%

April 28, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y718)
= Exp(a + b × X718 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2201 + 0.0002 × 1,040 + 2 × 0.0532)
= Exp(3.5037)
= $33.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y718)
= Exp(a + b × X718 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2201 + 0.0002 × 1,040 – 2 × 0.0532)
= Exp(3.2908)
= $26.87

June 18, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2201 + 0.0002 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0532)
= Exp(3.6369)
= $37.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2201 + 0.0002 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0532)
= Exp(3.4241)
= $30.69

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.42% per annum.
  • KDP price at the close of June 18, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.