Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP)
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. is a beverage company in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.49% per annum.
- KDP price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $33.81 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.04 (3.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 158.85% per annum.
- KDP price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KDP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 4, 2022
End date: April 23, 2024
a = 3.8479
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0427
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0427) – 1
= 18.61%
January 4, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y671)
= Exp(a + b × X671 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 972 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8479 + -0.0002 × 972 + 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(3.6970)
= $40.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y671)
= Exp(a + b × X671 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 972 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8479 + -0.0002 × 972 – 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(3.5264)
= $34.00
April 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8479 + -0.0002 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(3.4929)
= $32.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8479 + -0.0002 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(3.3222)
= $27.72
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 8.49% per annum.
- KDP price at the close of May 7, 2024 was $33.81 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.04 (3.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 4, 2024
End date: May 7, 2024
a = -1.2457
b = 0.0026
s = 0.0192
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 158.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0192) – 1
= 7.97%
March 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.2457 + 0.0026 × 1,762 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(3.3839)
= $29.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.2457 + 0.0026 × 1,762 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(3.3072)
= $27.31
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.2457 + 0.0026 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(3.5506)
= $34.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.2457 + 0.0026 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(3.4739)
= $32.26
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 158.85% per annum.
- KDP price at the close of May 7, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.