National Beverage Corp (FIZZ)
National Beverage Corp.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.52% per annum.
- FIZZ price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $49.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 128.45% per annum.
- FIZZ price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FIZZ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2021
End date: June 26, 2024
a = 3.7425
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0791
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0791) – 1
= 37.21%
February 2, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y383)
= Exp(a + b × X383 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 557 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7425 + 0.0000 × 557 + 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(3.9237)
= $50.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y383)
= Exp(a + b × X383 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 557 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7425 + 0.0000 × 557 – 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(3.6074)
= $36.87
June 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7425 + 0.0000 × 1,797 + 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(3.9750)
= $53.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7425 + 0.0000 × 1,797 – 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(3.6587)
= $38.81
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.52% per annum.
- FIZZ price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $49.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 16, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = -0.2041
b = 0.0023
s = 0.0413
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 128.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0413) – 1
= 17.98%
April 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,726 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2041 + 0.0023 × 1,726 + 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(3.7853)
= $44.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,188)
= Exp(a + b × X1,188 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,726 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2041 + 0.0023 × 1,726 – 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(3.6199)
= $37.33
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2041 + 0.0023 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(4.0116)
= $55.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2041 + 0.0023 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(3.8463)
= $46.82
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 128.45% per annum.
- FIZZ price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.