National Beverage Corp (FIZZ)
National Beverage Corp.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 0.89% per annum.
- FIZZ price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $43.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.83% per annum.
- FIZZ price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FIZZ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 1, 2021
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 3.7688
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0791
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0791) – 1
= 37.19%
February 1, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y190)
= Exp(a + b × X190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 277 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7688 + 0.0000 × 277 + 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(3.9336)
= $51.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y190)
= Exp(a + b × X190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 277 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7688 + 0.0000 × 277 – 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(3.6174)
= $37.24
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7688 + 0.0000 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(3.9711)
= $53.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7688 + 0.0000 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(3.6549)
= $38.66
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 0.89% per annum.
- FIZZ price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $43.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 27, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 4.8749
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0476
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0476) – 1
= 20.97%
June 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,046)
= Exp(a + b × X1,046 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,519 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8749 + -0.0006 × 1,519 + 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(3.9981)
= $54.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,046)
= Exp(a + b × X1,046 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,519 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8749 + -0.0006 × 1,519 – 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(3.8078)
= $45.05
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8749 + -0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(3.8023)
= $44.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8749 + -0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0476)
= Exp(3.6120)
= $37.04
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 20.83% per annum.
- FIZZ price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.