Stock Price Trends

Camden Property Trust (CPT)

Camden Property Trust, an S&P 400 company, is a real estate company primarily engaged in the ownership, management, development, remodeling, acquisition, and construction of multi-family apartment communities.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 35.95% per annum.
  • CPT price at the close of August 21, 2025 was $108.02 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $28.17 (20.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.41% per annum.
  • CPT price at the close of August 21, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CPT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 11, 2023
End date: December 17, 2024

a = 3.4770

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0484

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 35.95%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0484) – 1
= 21.37%

September 11, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y766)
= Exp(a + b × X766 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,113 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4770 + 0.0008 × 1,113 + 2 × 0.0484)
= Exp(4.5103)
= $90.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y766)
= Exp(a + b × X766 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,113 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4770 + 0.0008 × 1,113 – 2 × 0.0484)
= Exp(4.3166)
= $74.94

December 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,086)
= Exp(a + b × X1,086 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4770 + 0.0008 × 1,576 + 2 × 0.0484)
= Exp(4.8999)
= $134.28

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,086)
= Exp(a + b × X1,086 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4770 + 0.0008 × 1,576 – 2 × 0.0484)
= Exp(4.7062)
= $110.63

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 35.95% per annum.
  • CPT price at the close of August 21, 2025 was $108.02 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $28.17 (20.68%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 6, 2024
End date: August 21, 2025

a = 4.9956

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0320

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0320) – 1
= 13.64%

August 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,443 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9956 + -0.0002 × 1,443 + 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(4.8397)
= $126.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y993)
= Exp(a + b × X993 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,443 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9956 + -0.0002 × 1,443 – 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(4.7118)
= $111.25

August 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9956 + -0.0002 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(4.7818)
= $119.32

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9956 + -0.0002 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(4.6539)
= $104.99

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.41% per annum.
  • CPT price at the close of August 21, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.