Camden Property Trust (CPT)
Camden Property Trust, an S&P 400 company, is a real estate company primarily engaged in the ownership, management, development, remodeling, acquisition, and construction of multi-family apartment communities.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.69% per annum.
- CPT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $113.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.34 (11.95%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.00% per annum.
- CPT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CPT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 22, 2023
End date: December 16, 2024
a = 3.3049
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0427
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0427) – 1
= 18.64%
September 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y855)
= Exp(a + b × X855 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3049 + 0.0009 × 1,240 + 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(4.5015)
= $90.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y855)
= Exp(a + b × X855 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3049 + 0.0009 × 1,240 – 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(4.3305)
= $75.98
December 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,691 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3049 + 0.0009 × 1,691 + 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(4.9056)
= $135.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,165)
= Exp(a + b × X1,165 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,691 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3049 + 0.0009 × 1,691 – 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(4.7346)
= $113.82
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.69% per annum.
- CPT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $113.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.34 (11.95%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 6, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 5.0014
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0329
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -5.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0329) – 1
= 14.05%
August 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0014 + -0.0001 × 1,559 + 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(4.8479)
= $127.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0014 + -0.0001 × 1,559 – 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(4.7165)
= $111.77
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0014 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(4.8105)
= $122.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0014 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0329)
= Exp(4.6791)
= $107.67
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.00% per annum.
- CPT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.