Camden Property Trust (CPT)
Camden Property Trust, an S&P 400 company, is a real estate company primarily engaged in the ownership, management, development, remodeling, acquisition, and construction of multi-family apartment communities.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.92% per annum.
- CPT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $113.01 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $17.46 (18.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.59% per annum.
- CPT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CPT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 20, 2021
End date: April 5, 2024
a = 5.4517
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0780
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0780) – 1
= 36.64%
July 20, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y498)
= Exp(a + b × X498 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 722 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4517 + -0.0006 × 722 + 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(5.1929)
= $179.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y498)
= Exp(a + b × X498 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 722 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4517 + -0.0006 × 722 – 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(4.8807)
= $131.72
April 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4517 + -0.0006 × 1,712 + 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(4.6240)
= $101.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4517 + -0.0006 × 1,712 – 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(4.3118)
= $74.57
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.92% per annum.
- CPT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $113.01 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $17.46 (18.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 20, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 3.1033
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0339
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0339) – 1
= 14.51%
October 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,544 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1033 + 0.0009 × 1,544 + 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(4.5209)
= $91.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,544 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1033 + 0.0009 × 1,544 – 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(4.3854)
= $80.27
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1033 + 0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(4.7657)
= $117.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1033 + 0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0339)
= Exp(4.6301)
= $102.53
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.59% per annum.
- CPT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.