Stock Price Trends

Equity Residential (EQR)

Equity Residential is a publicly traded real estate investment trust that invests in apartments.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.35% per annum.
  • EQR price at the close of April 19, 2024 was $61.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.75% per annum.
  • EQR price at the close of April 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EQR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 8, 2021
End date: February 28, 2024

a = 4.6959

b = -0.0004

s = 0.0763

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.35%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0763) – 1
= 35.71%

July 8, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y558)
= Exp(a + b × X558 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6959 + -0.0004 × 808 + 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(4.5315)
= $92.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y558)
= Exp(a + b × X558 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6959 + -0.0004 × 808 – 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(4.2261)
= $68.45

February 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,773 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6959 + -0.0004 × 1,773 + 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(4.1527)
= $63.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,773 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6959 + -0.0004 × 1,773 – 2 × 0.0763)
= Exp(3.8474)
= $46.87

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.35% per annum.
  • EQR price at the close of April 19, 2024 was $61.54 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 6, 2022
End date: April 19, 2024

a = 4.0100

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0485

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0485) – 1
= 21.40%

October 6, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y873)
= Exp(a + b × X873 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,263 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0100 + 0.0000 × 1,263 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(4.1671)
= $64.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y873)
= Exp(a + b × X873 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,263 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0100 + 0.0000 × 1,263 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(3.9731)
= $53.15

April 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0100 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(4.1938)
= $66.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0100 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(3.9998)
= $54.59

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.75% per annum.
  • EQR price at the close of April 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.