Stock Price Trends

Equity Residential (EQR)

Equity Residential is a publicly traded real estate investment trust that invests in apartments.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.30% per annum.
  • EQR price at the close of July 10, 2025 was $67.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.45% per annum.
  • EQR price at the close of July 10, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EQR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 2, 2022
End date: June 23, 2025

a = 3.6994

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0611

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.30%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0611) – 1
= 27.66%

November 2, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y583)
= Exp(a + b × X583 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 842 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6994 + 0.0003 × 842 + 2 × 0.0611)
= Exp(4.0891)
= $59.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y583)
= Exp(a + b × X583 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 842 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6994 + 0.0003 × 842 – 2 × 0.0611)
= Exp(3.8449)
= $46.75

June 23, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6994 + 0.0003 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0611)
= Exp(4.3955)
= $81.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6994 + 0.0003 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0611)
= Exp(4.1512)
= $63.51

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 12.30% per annum.
  • EQR price at the close of July 10, 2025 was $67.08 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 23, 2024
End date: July 10, 2025

a = 4.6482

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0270

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.45%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0270) – 1
= 11.42%

August 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,036)
= Exp(a + b × X1,036 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,502 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6482 + -0.0002 × 1,502 + 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(4.3389)
= $76.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,036)
= Exp(a + b × X1,036 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,502 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6482 + -0.0002 × 1,502 – 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(4.2308)
= $68.77

July 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6482 + -0.0002 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(4.2613)
= $70.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6482 + -0.0002 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(4.1531)
= $63.63

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.45% per annum.
  • EQR price at the close of July 10, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.