Equity Residential (EQR)
Equity Residential is a publicly traded real estate investment trust that invests in apartments.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.67% per annum.
- EQR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $70.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 82.78% per annum.
- EQR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EQR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 20, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 2.6010
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0259
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0259) – 1
= 10.90%
October 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,544 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6010 + 0.0009 × 1,544 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.0357)
= $56.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,544 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6010 + 0.0009 × 1,544 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(3.9323)
= $51.03
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6010 + 0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.2866)
= $72.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6010 + 0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.1831)
= $65.57
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.67% per annum.
- EQR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $70.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 28, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 1.2418
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0112
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 82.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0112) – 1
= 4.57%
May 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,765 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2418 + 0.0017 × 1,765 + 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(4.1807)
= $65.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,765 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2418 + 0.0017 × 1,765 – 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(4.1359)
= $62.55
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2418 + 0.0017 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(4.2782)
= $72.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2418 + 0.0017 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(4.2334)
= $68.95
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 82.78% per annum.
- EQR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.