Stock Price Trends

Equity Residential (EQR)

Equity Residential is a publicly traded real estate investment trust that invests in apartments.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.67% per annum.
  • EQR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $70.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 82.78% per annum.
  • EQR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EQR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 20, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024

a = 2.6010

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0259

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.67%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0259) – 1
= 10.90%

October 20, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,544 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6010 + 0.0009 × 1,544 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.0357)
= $56.59

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,544 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6010 + 0.0009 × 1,544 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(3.9323)
= $51.03

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6010 + 0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.2866)
= $72.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6010 + 0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0259)
= Exp(4.1831)
= $65.57

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.67% per annum.
  • EQR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $70.77 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 28, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024

a = 1.2418

b = 0.0017

s = 0.0112

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 82.78%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0112) – 1
= 4.57%

May 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,765 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2418 + 0.0017 × 1,765 + 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(4.1807)
= $65.41

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,765 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2418 + 0.0017 × 1,765 – 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(4.1359)
= $62.55

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2418 + 0.0017 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(4.2782)
= $72.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2418 + 0.0017 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(4.2334)
= $68.95

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 82.78% per annum.
  • EQR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.