Independence Realty Trust Inc (IRT)
Independence Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: IRT) is a real estate investment trust that owns and operates multi-family apartment properties in non-entry US markets, including Atlanta, Louisville, Memphis and Raleigh.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.79% per annum.
- IRT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $18.49 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.56 (23.84%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 58.29% per annum.
- IRT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IRT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 23, 2021
End date: March 1, 2024
a = 3.6132
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0967
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0967) – 1
= 47.25%
September 23, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y545)
= Exp(a + b × X545 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6132 + -0.0006 × 790 + 2 × 0.0967)
= Exp(3.3294)
= $27.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y545)
= Exp(a + b × X545 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6132 + -0.0006 × 790 – 2 × 0.0967)
= Exp(2.9424)
= $18.96
March 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6132 + -0.0006 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0967)
= Exp(2.7916)
= $16.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,157)
= Exp(a + b × X1,157 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6132 + -0.0006 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0967)
= Exp(2.4046)
= $11.07
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.79% per annum.
- IRT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $18.49 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.56 (23.84%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 2, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 0.6142
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0407
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 58.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0407) – 1
= 17.68%
October 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,053)
= Exp(a + b × X1,053 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,529 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6142 + 0.0013 × 1,529 + 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(2.6196)
= $13.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,053)
= Exp(a + b × X1,053 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,529 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6142 + 0.0013 × 1,529 – 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(2.4568)
= $11.67
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6142 + 0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(2.9933)
= $19.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6142 + 0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(2.8305)
= $16.95
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 58.29% per annum.
- IRT price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.