Stock Price Trends

Independence Realty Trust Inc (IRT)

Independence Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: IRT) is a real estate investment trust that owns and operates multi-family apartment properties in non-entry US markets, including Atlanta, Louisville, Memphis and Raleigh.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.16% per annum.
  • IRT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $19.42 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.96 (16.95%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.54% per annum.
  • IRT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IRT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: December 17, 2024

a = 0.9758

b = 0.0012

s = 0.0422

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 57.16%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0422) – 1
= 18.37%

September 21, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y854)
= Exp(a + b × X854 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9758 + 0.0012 × 1,239 + 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(2.5948)
= $13.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y854)
= Exp(a + b × X854 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9758 + 0.0012 × 1,239 – 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(2.4262)
= $11.32

December 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,692 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9758 + 0.0012 × 1,692 + 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(3.1560)
= $23.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,692 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.9758 + 0.0012 × 1,692 – 2 × 0.0422)
= Exp(2.9873)
= $19.83

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 57.16% per annum.
  • IRT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $19.42 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.96 (16.95%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 28, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 2.6473

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0456

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 7.54%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0456) – 1
= 20.02%

June 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,047)
= Exp(a + b × X1,047 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,520 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6473 + 0.0002 × 1,520 + 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(3.0412)
= $20.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,047)
= Exp(a + b × X1,047 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,520 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6473 + 0.0002 × 1,520 – 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(2.8587)
= $17.44

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6473 + 0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(3.1019)
= $22.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6473 + 0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(2.9195)
= $18.53

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 7.54% per annum.
  • IRT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.