Stock Price Trends

Centerspace (CSR)

IRET is a real estate company focused on the ownership, management, acquisition, remodeling and development of apartment communities.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 21.36% per annum.
  • CSR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $60.24 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.99 (4.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.61% per annum.
  • CSR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CSR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: January 3, 2025

a = 3.3405

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0808

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.36%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0808) – 1
= 38.14%

March 9, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y720)
= Exp(a + b × X720 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,044 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3405 + 0.0005 × 1,044 + 2 × 0.0808)
= Exp(4.0557)
= $57.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y720)
= Exp(a + b × X720 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,044 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3405 + 0.0005 × 1,044 – 2 × 0.0808)
= Exp(3.7326)
= $41.79

January 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3405 + 0.0005 × 1,710 + 2 × 0.0808)
= Exp(4.4089)
= $82.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3405 + 0.0005 × 1,710 – 2 × 0.0808)
= Exp(4.0858)
= $59.49

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 21.36% per annum.
  • CSR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was $60.24 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.99 (4.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 13, 2024
End date: April 28, 2025

a = 5.5617

b = -0.0008

s = 0.0360

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.61%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0360) – 1
= 15.47%

August 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,079)
= Exp(a + b × X1,079 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,567 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5617 + -0.0008 × 1,567 + 2 × 0.0360)
= Exp(4.3634)
= $78.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,079)
= Exp(a + b × X1,079 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,567 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5617 + -0.0008 × 1,567 – 2 × 0.0360)
= Exp(4.2195)
= $68.00

April 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5617 + -0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0360)
= Exp(4.1542)
= $63.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5617 + -0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0360)
= Exp(4.0104)
= $55.17

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.61% per annum.
  • CSR price at the close of April 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.