Centerspace (CSR)
IRET is a real estate company focused on the ownership, management, acquisition, remodeling and development of apartment communities.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 63.97% per annum.
- CSR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $70.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.39% per annum.
- CSR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CSR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 20, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 1.7840
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0468
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 63.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0468) – 1
= 20.59%
October 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,544 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7840 + 0.0014 × 1,544 + 2 × 0.0468)
= Exp(3.9694)
= $52.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,544 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7840 + 0.0014 × 1,544 – 2 × 0.0468)
= Exp(3.7822)
= $43.91
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7840 + 0.0014 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0468)
= Exp(4.3487)
= $77.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7840 + 0.0014 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0468)
= Exp(4.1615)
= $64.17
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 63.97% per annum.
- CSR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $70.38 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 30, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 3.7382
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0192
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0192) – 1
= 7.98%
April 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7382 + 0.0003 × 1,737 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(4.2472)
= $69.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,197)
= Exp(a + b × X1,197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7382 + 0.0003 × 1,737 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(4.1704)
= $64.74
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7382 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(4.2707)
= $71.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7382 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0192)
= Exp(4.1940)
= $66.29
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.39% per annum.
- CSR price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.