AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is a publicly traded real estate investment trust that invests in apartments.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 18.56% per annum.
- AVB price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $207.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.92% per annum.
- AVB price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AVB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 2, 2022
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 4.5729
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0541
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0541) – 1
= 24.18%
November 2, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y633)
= Exp(a + b × X633 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 916 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5729 + 0.0005 × 916 + 2 × 0.0541)
= Exp(5.1085)
= $165.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y633)
= Exp(a + b × X633 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 916 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5729 + 0.0005 × 916 – 2 × 0.0541)
= Exp(4.8919)
= $133.21
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5729 + 0.0005 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0541)
= Exp(5.5199)
= $249.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5729 + 0.0005 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0541)
= Exp(5.3034)
= $201.01
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 18.56% per annum.
- AVB price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $207.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 30, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 6.0273
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0288
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0288) – 1
= 12.22%
August 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0273 + -0.0004 × 1,583 + 2 × 0.0288)
= Exp(5.4847)
= $240.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,583 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0273 + -0.0004 × 1,583 – 2 × 0.0288)
= Exp(5.3695)
= $214.75
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0273 + -0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0288)
= Exp(5.3930)
= $219.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0273 + -0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0288)
= Exp(5.2777)
= $195.92
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.92% per annum.
- AVB price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.